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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33214)	4/16/2008 10:33:30 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

More worrisome to the powers that be than Tibet .. business.timesonline.co.uk From Times Online April 16, 2008 Fears of unrest as China's growth slackens Dancers perform a lion dance on the Chinese Lunar New Year Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent Astronomic food price surges and a winter of freak snowstorms have taken the edge off China’s roaring economic growth, stoking government fears of embarrassing social unrest before the Beijing Olympics. Amid rising concerns of recession in the United States, China’s economy expanded at 10.2 per cent over the first three months of 2008 – slipping from the 11.2 per cent growth logged in the previous quarter. Though still very substantial growth rates, some economists fear that China may have – for the moment – passed a peak in its expansion and its giant exports will suffer as the rest of the world suffers a downturn. Also of growing concern to investors is also the negative effect of the Olympics on industry – factories in and around Beijing are preparing themselves for long, government-enforced shut-downs in an effort to clear some of the pollution from the city’s smoggy skies. Related Links * Fear of rice riots as Far East demand surges * Gloom reigns but world will not pop * China's growth could spark political tensions Others were much more encouraged by today’s figures, believing that the impact of the winter’s abnormally destructive snowstorms, which knocked out power supplies and transport in more than half of China’s 31 provinces, has been under-estimated. Several economists, including Stephen Green of Standard Chartered, said that China’s growth profile still bellowed the need for interest rate increases if the government is to keep growth under a semblance of control. More alarming for Chinese policymakers, however, is growing evidence that efforts to curb inflation are not working. Consumer prices were 8.3 per cent higher in March than the same time a year ago, placing inflation near a 12-year high and far surpassing the government’s target of 4.8 per cent for 2008. High inflation has, in recent decades, been a trigger for street protests and other unrest. Adding an extra layer of sensitivity, much of the inflationary pressure now arises from soaring costs of basic foods such as cooking, oil, wheat, pork and other meat. Because food has such a high weighting in China’s consumer price index (38%), the effect of 21 per cent rise in the cost of food since the beginning of the year is very marked. “When prices are running at a high level, it is a very precarious problem,” said the bureau’s spokesmen, Li Xiaochao, stressing the need to monitor and crack down on illegal behaviour such as food hoarding. Markets have been watching especially closely for this latest round of data from China: foreign investors are beginning to assume that the country will achieve only 9 per cent economic growth over the course of this year, and that unchecked inflation will create serious hardship throughout China’s still polarised consumer sector. But Glenn Maguire, the chief Asia economist at SG, said that reports of the death of Chinese growth were much exaggerated. Yesterday’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics contained two huge surprises: fixed asset investment swelled at 25.9 per cent and retail sales grew at 21.5 per cent in March, suggesting that China’s ability to create income is not dependent on its outward-facing industries. The domestic-driven momentum behind consumption in China, he said, is now very strong.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33214)	4/16/2008 11:46:28 AM
From: Rolla Coasta	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

This piece of description about china is rather logical than misfire. The PRC needs the buffer zones to protect from foreign invasion. It is like protectionism across the globe. Who really want to give up a piece of land ? Russia is already pissed off and they distrust any western attempts to negotiate. There're sovereignty issues and no one simply can argue with the fact that the earth has functioned like this for all the history.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33214)	4/17/2008 1:56:19 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217789

What I find amusing is Strafor's idea that the Tibet activity is the result of some coherent US Strategic Policy, sort of like the "color revolutions". The whole idea that US and EU institutions can claim the credit for every color revolution is a stretch. Maybe people just got fed up with the local crooks and thugs who were too close to the Soviets besides being crooks and thugs. Maybe people want what the EU has to offer, freedom of movement and capital, a convertible currency, along with detailed regulations for every thing and maybe some degree of human rights and judicial standards. Besides, isn't obvious that Barbara Streisand is a major foreign policy player ? A few things missing from the analysis of China's defense interests : 1) Japan, a nation with a scary track record and over 50 tons of plutonium. The declining and aging population may have tamed Japan for a while... Also no mention of the Koreas and VietNam, where two wars were fought on China's doorstep. Also two countries that at various times have been much closer to Russia than China. I'm sure our dear Russian friends have entertained the idea of a 3 front war on China, with movements for North Korea and South VietNam, with a major Russian drive to Beijing itself.