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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33271)	4/19/2008 10:12:36 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

MY market activity - A new long term buy and hold, Tamerlane Ventures, a minning company in Canada with very large base metal deposit in the sort of medium North (not Arctic Circle) TAM.to TMLVF on the US pinks. Saw it mention on an SI board. Do your own due diligence, of course. My position size is a thin slice. This is a thin stock, almost trades by appointment, so it takes time to build a posistion. I still have a big position in GPXM.BB, a moly and gold play, that may take another 12-18 months, but they are making money. They are exploring an exchange listing, and have a dispute that has been a long time in arbitration. The has postive income and cash flow, however, and are still expanding the moly mine. Core energy positions that I like - All of these are easy to buy, except GTE, and that is not bad. BZP Peru oil , they keep finding more - and becoming less speculative much fast than the stock is rising. Only Moderate risk. GTE was GTRE, Columbia, stock keeps rising (speculative) The volume is occasionally thin on this TRGL natural gas offshore Turkey, was down short term because of a broken pipeline and Turkish financial worries, the first is being fixed, the latter is declining. Moderate Risk. TXCO a US Texas onshore company with TAR SANDS in the Lone Star State. Higher oil prices tend to push the realization of the value of the Tar Sands assets. If the oil price drops, you might want to get out quick. Commodity price drives valuation based on future profit potential, so this is levered to the psychology of oil. (speculative) Income producers - LINE had some hedges underwater, stock is still low PWE recommended by Kurt Wulff at www.mcdep.com ENT this is a little riskier Read about these on SI's Boom Boom Room. Uranium I still like Dennison DNN:NYSE, DML.to, also warrants DML.wt but Uranium has not become "hot" for about 2 months. (moderate risk at these price levels. Also, a good chance we wake up one Monday and there is a takeover offer.) I'm looking at URRE, a US producer, the stock looks like it is bottoming. (speculative) Heavy Speculation - I am speculating on the long side, with in and out trades about every week or so, on PAL, North American Palladium NYSE: PAL PDL.to and warrants PDL.wt PAL/WS or PALWS pinks. So here is my bet - My bet is that Pt and PD consumption will not decline significantly and/or South African production from deep mines will be constrained by electricity shortages and/or Various investors and hedges fund will load up on Pt / Pd and effectively 'corner the market' AND - - the Russians will not dump Pt and Pd on the market to push the price down Expected outcome - Platinum Pt soars some more, maybe 2500, maybe 3000. Palladium Pd, gets pulled along as a susbsitute, from the present 450-500 range towards 800-900. PAL (the stock) profits and apparent value expolde upward. Wham I am watching with just minor slivers - Biotech, Tech, Bear Funds. Actually no bear funds for about 10 days or so.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33271)	4/19/2008 10:26:14 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217789

General trends - or, who still has bear funds ? One thing we are seeing with both energy and tech - more differences in individual stock performances. Some stocks like GOOG SOARING, other tech stocks dropping. I expect we will see this in finance also. So this may not be a good time for Bear ETF that are short whole markets or sectors. Maybe puts on individual stocks, or for the brave, selling naked calls, or shorting. Also, as soon as the Libor over Treasury premium comes down, we will see more take overs and merger activity. I am not calling a bottom in the markets, I am just seeing the the bear side reward has become smaller (much of the bear reward already happened) and the risk has become higher, since there is still lots of cash around, and as liquidity issues are fixed, there will be more cash. So I like the bets that all the newly printed money will help energy and metals prices, and I want to own companies that are finding and getting more energy and metals. Excess money printing and inflation looks much more likely than liquidity problems continuing at the same level or becoming worse. Who here still has bear funds ?