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To: axial who wrote (26218)	4/25/2008 3:39:52 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 46821

The incumbents thinking when it comes to spectrum is 'divide and conquer': keep the most desirable spectrum out of the hands of those that might introduce flat IP networks sooner than they are ready to do so themselves. It will take years before we see open personal broadband become the common business model: at least 10 years imo. But before then the nature of networks and services will continue to change due to advances, shifts in usage, and competitive pressures. We are already seeing several preemptive moves by suppliers and operators around the world. Some of these are more pro-active than others. I view Verizon's moves as reactive: their acquisition of 700 MHz spectrum at a price tag of $9.36 billion should easily pay for itself but could be questioned as not being needed for the near term. It was at least partly intended to keep competition from developing that could more directly threaten their business model. I think that the WiMAX camp, including Intel, missed one of the best opportunities for taking a great leap forward: The long term road map for IMT-Advanced 4G development is to aggregate larger blocks of spectrum for use of IP wireless networks. This will contrast with the way wireless has been used up until now to be similar to WiMAX and LTE: the use of wireless link technology to transport all types of communications using a common set of technologies and communications protocols, not separate links for IPTV, voice, data, etc. Both WiMAX and LTE are designed to deliver the combination of services and scalability but operators have not made the leap to do aggregation of spectrum on a 'purpose use of spectrum' basis. This will happen as a result of the shifts in aggregation of spectrum and technology that are well under way. But what prevents it from happening sooner rather than latter is that few incumbent operators will wish to transition current users off of exiting networks prior to the normal life cycle return on investment. If an operator or consortium had been able to put together a 20 MHz or wider combination at 700 MHz plus a 30 MHz or wider band at 2 GHz to 3 Ghz (3.3-3.7 GHz would be less desirable but feasible) in a national network, they could craft a new class of network that would be a 'industry killer'. Of course, that would take several billion in funding to build out the network and entice chip and device suppliers to develop products. We are at a point now that this is technically feasible. It would take 2-3 years to develop and certify products - 4-5 years to have the network deployed. That is still a long term proposition but nothing like 10-15 years. Would the enabled service make sense? It should easily make sense because it would provide a combination of wide area phone, messaging and low bandwidth (128-256k) connectivity plus high bandwidth metro-area and corridor service that occur seamlessly. There are several new services including GPS-mapping, location based advertising and sales, customized search and micro-payments that would add to the basic service revenue. But just based on ability to provide 'triple play' Internet, IPTV, VoIP service it should be profitable. BTW, we interview international operators, many who now have experience with WiMAX deployments. The consensus among recent major operators is that the service has proven to exceed expectations for customer uptake, particularly of triple play service packages. This has pushed networks to go back in to deploy more densely so support greater numbers of users and higher bandwidths.