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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (30692)	4/17/2008 7:43:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78656

This article provides a good over view on companies that have projects in the Marcellus shale region. I am not sure which ones might be value plays but Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) is already up 35% from Feb 2008. Investing in the Marcellus Shale by: Harry Chernoff posted on: March 17, 2008 \| about stocks: ATN / CHK / COG / LINE / RRC / XCO seekingalpha.com Companies mentioned in the artcle. finance.yahoo.com Relative performance shows that LINN ENERGY LLC UTS (NasdaqGS: LINE) may be one to look at as it has underperformed the group and the S&P 500. I wonder if they can maintain their high dividend yield at 10.7%? finance.yahoo.com EKS

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (30692)	4/18/2008 12:39:53 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78656

Bakken: I can't make any recommendations because I'm doing this on my own, and I'm not at all confident what I am doing is right. Also, although I am buying, these stocks do not look like they are appropriate for the typical value player (whoever that is). I've got many oil/gas plays. I'm keeping the following stocks in my "Bakken" file. I may have other stocks that are involved in the Bakken play, but I haven't so characterized them as Bakken. And these companies below may not be only or primarily Bakken plays: finance.yahoo.com PBEGF: 2007 position. Latest: small adds in early/mid 4/08. Have not decided if I will continue to add now. TOGSF: early 2008 position. Have not decided if I will continue to add now. CPGCF: Averaging up. My latest buys 4/10 @$29.67 and 4/16 @$33.40. (Closed today $32.29) Sorry to acknowledge though, only a relatively very few shares total in this one. My error, or at least I'm disappointed (as of today anyway) that I didn't start off with a larger buy or add more earlier/quicker. I like this one because it's a Canadian energy trust, and there's some protection given the dividend. Crescent Point apparently has been an early mover (securing leases) in the Bakken. Here are the problems: To a lesser extent, the yield decreases if/as stock price increases (so maybe its margin-of-safety decreases thereby also). To a greater extent, the problem with these trusts is that they pay out so much money to stockholders, that it's questionable that any can afford to really develop their acreage (horizontal drilling required and each such well costs several million dollars - much more than "conventional" drilling). Perhaps only by raising capital and diluting current shareholders. I've looked at LINE a couple of times. It's recommended by several on Big Dog's thread. (I generally use Big Dog's thread as a contrarian indicator, but in this case, maybe people are right. Or not.) LINE as a Canadian trust maybe could face same issues as CPGCF. From reading some posters/reports, there's some uncertainty if LINE has any deep drilling exposure/experience. I've decided to pass on LINE every time I've considered it. I have [t]XTO[/t] which I've not characterized (owned) as a Bakken play. They just announced purchase of some (all?) of LINE's Bakken holdings: thestreet.com I added small to my XTO position 4/15 @ $64.57 and 4/16 @ $66.32 and $67.50. I am considering adding more if stock surpasses these prices. I'm also adding to my small position in [t]MRO[/t] which has a Bakken component: marathon.com MRO might be more risky buy now because of its large refinery business. (Refinery stocks have really dropped in price this year.) Also it's a diversified exploration company, so the Bakken is only a part. I keep adding to ERF. Canadian oil trust. My intent: build to a full position. My notes show I'm still underwater with my initial 12/06/06 position. Based on my Bakken interest, I show I've made SMALL adds this year 1/22, 3/27, 3/31, 4/01, 4/02, 4/03,4/07, 4/08, 4/09, 4/11. WLL is one of the stocks I sold down in reducing my stock exposure at E-trade last November. Recently, and perhaps too late, I've been reentering to add to my small position. I made small buys from 4/7 to 4/15. I'm considering going for an overweight position in MDU, and I've been buying shares there. Would like to see the stock come down though, and I will consider going in aggressively. I started to buy 4/8, and my latest purchase is on 4/16 @$28.10. This seems to be a very good stock for me (FOR ME) for my desire for a ltb&h (10-year plus holding). It's a company apparently characterized as a natural gas utility. It has a construction (cement type) component and an exploratory section. I like the stock's history over time: finance.yahoo.com There's a small dividend that gets increased. It may be a geezer stock. Which is okay by me, because I am one. lol. I have a lot of bdc's, refinery stocks, others. Sometimes it's nice to have something in the taxable portfolio that seems to have good, maybe not great prospects, yet which might be a steady-Eddy. A company which has good prospects yet is diversified enough and good enough that based on its history, wouldn't have a large volatile affect on the portfolio if it were a substantial component of it. (Aside: Are there really such stocks? -g-) All jmo and what I am doing. And I've been wrong many, many times. Anybody here with additional info./opinions/corrections to my comments on these stocks or the Bakken, please feel free to post.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (30692)	4/20/2008 10:26:56 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78656

Jurgis Bekepuris: Here's what I have in my file for the Marcellus: finance.yahoo.com I have shares in all these, plus a couple more that seem to be thinly traded and where I'm trying to get fills. For me, REXX and RRC are recent buys, so very dangerous coming late to the wild party. Small buys, and I am not going to like the volatility I might expect from these. I'm adding to HAL as it moves up. I have only few shares of XCO purchased 2006, Message 22626844 I added just a little more, 4/14/08 (I want to clarify my earlier post on Bakken stocks: as regards my Bakken file, I do own shares in every one in there. It's not just a 'watch' file.)