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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (77916)4/18/2008 1:00:16 AM
From: Sea Otter  Respond to of 116555
 
Libor Getting Spooked by Scrutiny

Sometimes the truth doesn't set you free.

online.wsj.com

========

The world's most widely used interest rate took its largest jump since the advent of the credit crisis in a sign that banks could be responding to increasing concerns that the rate doesn't reflect their actual borrowing costs.

Thursday's sudden jump in the dollar-denominated London interbank offered rate, or Libor, comes after a decision Wednesday by the British Bankers' Association to speed up an inquiry into the daily borrowing rates that banks provide to establish the Libor rate.

The move by the BBA, which oversees Libor, came amid concerns among bankers that their rivals were not reporting the high rates they were paying for short-term loans for fear of appearing desperate for cash.

In a note to clients Thursday, UBS AG strategist William O'Donnell suggested that banks were responding to the heightened scrutiny, saying that the BBA's announcement of its inquiry was an attempt "to bring publicly posted rates back into line with the shadow interbank money rate market."

If sustained, the jump could mean higher debt payments for homeowners, companies and others. Libor serves as the basis for interest rates on trillions of dollars in floating-rate corporate loans and mortgage loans. Libor rates are also used in hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives contracts, such as the interest-rate swaps companies and investors use to protect themselves against sudden shifts in the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates.

Some expect Libor to increase further. William Porter, credit strategist at Credit Suisse, said he believes the three-month dollar rate is 0.4 percentage point below where it should be. That echoes the view of Scott Peng, a Citigroup Inc. analyst who said that Libor understated banks' true borrowing costs by as much as 0.3 percentage points.

The benchmark dollar Libor rate for three-month borrowing hit 2.8175% Thursday, or about .08 percentage point more than the 2.7335% rate set on Wednesday. That was the biggest increase since the three-month rate rose 0.12 percentage point on Aug. 9. At that time, news that French bank BNP Paribas had suspended withdrawals from three investment funds set off global concerns about banks' financial health. The three-month rate is now at its highest level since March 13, when markets were preoccupied with problems at Bear Stearns Co.

A spokesman for the BBA declined to comment. On Wednesday, the BBA said a review of the data banks provide to Thomson Reuters Corp. -- initially planned for June -- was already under way. The disclosure that a review had been fast-tracked came after a Wednesday article in The Wall Street Journal highlighted bankers' concerns about Libor.

The problems with Libor have attracted the attention of policy makers in the U.S. "This is a new development," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said during an appearance in Chicago. "I need to learn more."

Other lending rates for other currencies fell or remained relatively flat. That could be a sign that banks' demand for dollar loans has made the dollar Libor rate one of the more susceptible to inaccuracies. The three-month sterling rate fell to 5.90625% from 5.92438% Wednesday, while the three-month euro Libor rate edged up to 4.78% from 4.775%.

Every morning, banks submit to Thomson Reuters what it would cost them to borrow money across 10 currencies -- the U.S. dollar to the Swedish krona -- and 15 maturities, ranging from overnight to a year. In recent months, dollar rates submitted by banks have not varied markedly, nor have they increased or decreased sharply.

Thursday was a different story. The highest quote of the morning was submitted by U.K. lender HBOS PLC, which submitted a 2.86% rate for a three-month loan. That was up 0.10 percentage point from Wednesday. HSBC Holdings PLC posted a rate of 2.85%, up 0.12 percentage point from Wednesday. Bank of America Corp. submitted the lowest rate of 2.77%, up from 2.75% on Wednesday.

HBOS spokesman Shane O'Riordain said the bank had changed the rate to reflect similar moves in U.S. futures markets. "We always err on the side of caution," he said. An HSBC spokesman and a Bank of America spokeswoman declined to comment.



To: mishedlo who wrote (77916)4/18/2008 1:02:53 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 116555
 
Not to worry about. The world is not going to collapse.

According to the WTO: World trade increased 5,5% 2007 expected to grow 4,5% 2008. Two years ago it expanded 8,5%.

The whole developed world slow down caused world growth from 3,7% para 3,4%. However, increment of 7% the emerging markets allowed for the pace of growth to be kept.

In one word: we decoupled. Developed world will growth 1,1%, energing markets growth will be higher 5%.

Not to worry about. The world is not going to collapse.



To: mishedlo who wrote (77916)4/18/2008 1:53:28 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Container Shortage Puts U.S. Export Boom in a Box
By TIMOTHY AEPPEL
April 10, 2008; Page B1

ELMAT: Like I say: the juggernaut is awaking!!

Many U.S. companies hoping to profit from surging exports created by the weak dollar are facing an unexpected hurdle: There aren't enough of the big, metal shipping containers that help form the backbone of the global economy.

The shortage is threatening to limit the benefits U.S. producers can reap from one of the few bright spots in an otherwise troubled economy. While housing and financial markets have slumped, many companies have seen a rise in their export business, helping offset the domestic slump and lessening what would have already been a far more painful downturn.


The container shortage is forcing U.S. businesses to rethink export strategies. Many shipping lines have shifted container capacity away from the U.S.

Finding enough of the big metal boxes used to be a cinch, because the nation's massive hunger for imports meant they were constantly arriving and stacking up from Long Beach, Calif., to Long Island, N.Y. Shipping companies typically scoured the country for anyone willing to fill outgoing boxes. But with the slump in the value of the dollar making U.S. goods more attractive to foreign buyers and many overseas economies continuing to hum, the tide has shifted in recent months. Trade figures being released Thursday are expected by many economists to show further growth in exports.

Shipping containers -- and the way they're handled -- reflect how the U.S. interacts with the global economy, which is one reason the problem has emerged now. For years, the U.S. crafted a trading system that was designed to pull in masses of imported consumers goods such as sneakers and VCRs as efficiently as possible from countries like China. Far less was expected to flow the other way.

What has happened now has thrown a wrench into the works. Cutbacks by U.S. consumers have slowed the growth of imports, while the weak dollar is making the U.S. into an export machine. Meanwhile, the places where most of these exports are originating are far from where boxes are being unpacked and soaring energy costs make it too costly to just load them on trucks and move them around.

"There are some places, particularly in the Midwest, where there's a complete lack of containers," says Philip Damas, the head of container research at Drewry Shipping Consultants in London.


And it's not just boxes that are in short supply. Maersk Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of A.P. Moller-Maersk Group, the Danish container shipping company, notes a shortage of chassis, which are sets of wheels and frames on container-carrying trucks. Without enough chassis to deliver containers, it doesn't matter how many are piled up in a port, says a company spokeswoman. Yet another problem: Many shipping lines, including Maersk, have shifted container capacity away from the U.S., just when U.S. producers need them most.

This has meant lost orders, delays, or a scramble for alternatives, such as costlier air freight. A Wisconsin producer of riding lawn mowers expects fewer "opportunistic sales" to European customers in coming months, because he can't book containers on a few days' notice -- three weeks are needed -- while a South Carolina construction-machine maker says the shortage has delayed shipments to Australia and Europe. McCain International, the big french-fry company with operations in the U.S. and Canada, says it can't get enough refrigerated containers. Among the hardest hit are companies that shippers counted on to fill otherwise empty outbound ships: scrap metal and paper concerns.

"This is a huge problem for us and it keeps getting worse," says Shailesh Vyas, president of Bay Bridge Enterprises LLC, a scrap-metal processor in Chesapeake, Va. Mr. Vyas said shipping lines used to call on him to fill outbound 40-foot containers with scrap metal. But shippers no longer want low-value scrap when they can fill ships with higher-value goods, such as grain, chemicals and machinery.

As recently as August, Mr. Vyas was sending up to 1,000 containers a month to customers in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, which melt scrap to make new steel products. Now, he's lucky to get 300 or 400 boxes, he says. "What's really frustrating is that, today, I could be moving 2,000 boxes a month without any problem, but I can't get the boxes."

Analysts say shipping costs are rising, too. Mr. Damas, the London-based consultant, says the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from the West Coast to China is now $1,500, up at least 20% in the past year. In many cases, boxes that previously would be sent to inland locations never leave the coast.

The problem surfaced about six months ago and can be traced to a confluence of factors, beyond the slump in the dollar. For one, the global commodity boom has increased the cost of shipping items by bulk, which in turn has pushed more goods into containers.

It doesn't help that containers don't tend to flow to places that make most U.S. exports. More imports to the U.S. are consumer goods, which are often unloaded near retailers and warehouses in large cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. In the case of Chicago, many containers come off ships from Asia and onto trains destined for "inland" destinations. But U.S. commodity exports, such as cotton and corn, are grown far from those hubs.

The shortage of boxes is forcing some businesses to rethink how they structure operations. Dan Ariens, chief executive of Ariens Co., a Brillion, Wis., maker of lawn mowers and snowblowers, spent the last few years perfecting just-in-time production, which allowed him to sharply reduce inventories in warehouses.

"We've had to adapt to work with longer lead times, which means trying to get better vision from customers," says Mr. Ariens. Even then, he figures he'll lose some business because of the dearth of containers. For instance, an early spring in Europe might prompt a surge of lawn-mower orders, but he won't be able to get his products there quickly enough. Air freight is too expensive to even consider, he notes.

Manufacturers like Ariens work closely with freight forwarders, which help companies move goods around the world. But Tim Schwerzler, vice president of sales at Harbour Freight, the Batavia, Ill.-based forwarder who works with Ariens, says many manufacturers, even huge companies with long-standing relationships with the shipping lines, are facing similar problems.

"A lot of companies have product sold, but can't get the product out -- it's tying up a lot of inventory," says Mr. Schwerzler. "Even if you get containers, you find more people fighting for space on the ships."

Sometimes, the shortage can torpedo an entire transaction. One of his customers wanted to buy ice-cream sandwiches from a company with factories in the upper Midwest to ship to the Caribbean, but couldn't get a steady flow of refrigerated containers to the factory. Shipping ice cream by truck to a distant port was too costly and fraught with risk of spoilage.

Analysts say that barring a global slowdown that put the brakes on U.S. exports, the problem will dog exporters at least through the end of next year.



To: mishedlo who wrote (77916)4/18/2008 12:04:46 PM
From: koan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
mish: " Nonsense, Price can not rise above peoples ability to pay for them, at least for long."

That is why housing is crashing now.

If wages do not go up, prices of housing will continue to drop regardless of what the cost of materials is.

Simple economics."

koan: Well, not quite so simple. The sub prime debacle is just that, a sub prime problem. The banks were loaning to people who cannot pay, or were engaging in speculation; and were also sold short term variable rates that rose quickly.

But if inflation rages and the difference between the cost of an existing house becomes too low compared to the cost of building a house then peopel will notice this and step into buy value. Inflation will affect this differential.

I agree that people cannot afford houses they cannot pay for, but that is why I believe when new house are built again they will have to be built cheaper, because I do not see wages rising much with the demise of unions, massive new competition of cheap labor (immigration) and companies moving to cheap labor countries. We are becoming a hamburger stand economy with a taste for steak.

But one mistake people make all the time is thinking there is a 1 to 1 direct correlation between "simple" wages and housing prices. Although I think that is basically true in the main, people can often afford more than people think because they have the savings to put larger down payments.

It has been my observation over 16 years of selling real estate that houses sell below cost when there is a glut of houses for whatever reason and I have seen this scenario before.

But once that glut is absorbed by the market, then the price of a house is related to cost. Period. And that means inflation becomes an overriding variable. If wages do not rise, as mentioned, then cheaper houses will be built.

If inflation is raging many people will find money (investment or otherwise)to buy when they see too big of a differential between real cost of houses and market price.

I have several friends right now looking to buy in the Washington, Oregon area while prices are down a bit and interest rats are low because they can see that up ahead both housing costs and interest rates are going to rise.

In fact when my town had a big housing depression in the late 80's I put a partnership together and we bought a lot of houses very cheaply and rented them out until the market rose back up and then we sold them at a big profit. Some houses (condo's and attached homes) rose 500%.

We had a glut and prices went way below replacement cost and building stopped. Then when prices started to rise due to a shortage in housing and new building began housing costs were directly related to new housing costs.