Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (333)	4/18/2008 11:52:00 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

The major chart decisions are still pending -- not yet decided. Thanks for writing that post, A. It sure does strike a chord. Many, many times I wondered about the same thing. I see intelligent people who know what they are talking about predicting major moves - and I simply do not see why they should so necessarily happen. In the past I sometimes used to doubt myself - maybe I was missing things which to others were obvious? Instead, I would see many still open possibilities. Once in a blue moon one sees something "convincing" - a clean ED or a triangle, or a "fresh" impulse followed by a "three", etc. But much of the time charts simply have less predictive value than we like to believe they do. Enjoy your trip!

To: AllansAlias who wrote (333)	5/22/2008 12:30:37 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

It's a little early yet to go from flat to short, but I'm close. There are encouraging signs that we have sprung our bull trap after these last few months of up (see post I am replying to), but only a few charts are broken here. The most important factor is a lower line in your timeframe -- I mean the end of the trend -- a series of higher highs and higher lows. We do not see that just yet on, say, the S&P 500. (We do see it on the Dow, which has been lagging for a couple of weeks -- which was a bearish divergence.) If we get some more net-down the next 4 or 5 sessions, then I'll go from neutral to "short the bounces" mode. On Friday, I wanted to emphasize just how close things were to "major breakout modes", especially this week's canary in the coal mine, the semis. We pulled back from that, obviously, and today we spoke very early on about how we were, in the other direction, on the edge of a series of breakdowns. We went over that edge, but it is early days yet -- a little early to be shorting imho. I don't think it will happen, but bully could still pull it out of the fire, from a TA point of view.