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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (38994)	4/19/2008 7:54:07 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95801

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (4/19/08) amateur-investor.net The market as able to rally this week mainly because of earnings reports from Google and Intel which led to two decent upward moves on Wednesday and Friday. Although it's possible the major averages will move a little higher the rapid drop in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past month is a concern as investors have become very complacent. In the past when the VIX has dropped more than 40% (points A to B) this has either been followed by a brief sharp pullback (points C to D) or a rather substantial sell off (points D to E). The question at this point is will there be a brief sharp pullback like occurred back in late August (points C to D) or will it turn into a more substantial drop like has occurred the last 3 times (points D to E)? As far as the major averages the Dow has risen back above its 200 Day EMA (green line) and is nearing its 50% Retracement Level (calculated from the October high to the January low) near 12915 (point F). The thing to watch next week will be if the Dow stalls out at its 50% Retracement Level or not. If the Dow does stall out near the 12915 level then we could see a pullback develop. Meanwhile if the Dow can rise above 12915 then it may rally up to its 61.8% near 13200 (point G) before any type of significant correction occurs. The Nasdaq is approaching its 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the October high to the March low) near 2425 (point H) and I will be watching this level closely next week. If the Nasdaq stalls out near 2425 then we could see a pullback develop. On the other hand if the Nasdaq can rise above this level then it may rally up to its 200 Day EMA (green line) near 2460 before we see a correction develop. As far as the S&P 500 I will be watching two levels next week for a potential pullback to develop at. The first level would be at its 200 Day EMA (green line) near 1410 while the second level would be at its 50% Retracement Level (calculated from the October high to the March low) near 1420 (point I). To sum things up with the Volatility Index (VIX) dropping considerably over the past 4 weeks I expect we are going to see some type of pullback/correction develop before much longer. I expect this pullback/correction will develop somewhere in the 12915 to 13200 range for the Dow, 2425 to 2460 range in the Nasdaq and 1410 to 1420 area in the S&P 500. As a result I would be very careful about taking any new positions to the long side until after we see a pullback/correction occur.

To: robert b furman who wrote (38994)	4/20/2008 12:22:56 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95801

Bob, thanks for the input on DOW theory action. We had a nice week this past week. If the earnings reports continue to come in as well as they did last week, another "up" week should be in the making. As shown by, Message 24513718 the last 6 weeks have produced a nice gain. Eleven of the 23 stocks in the Group are up 10 percent or more in this period. The smaller cap stocks in the Group have done well, now we need the larger cap stocks such as KLAC and AMAT to chime in.