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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (58823)	4/20/2008 12:56:02 AM
From: baystock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78405

>So when fully up to speed about 9 mill ounces of AG equivalent. Sales price of 18 bucks per ounce minus a cost of 7 bucks per ounce = 99 million cash flow. 250 million fully diluted. CFPS about 39 cents. A decent multiple is 10 for this size a mine. Puts the share price at 3.90. < Hi Loantech, A CFPS of 39 cents per share would indeed be very good for a company with a share price in the low 60 cents range. But unfortunately in the case of US silver this is not true. On page 8 and 11 of the company's own presentation you will see that they are forecasting much lower cash flows: us-silver.com I think the discrepancy between your numbers and theirs arises from the use of AG equivalent. You use AG equivalent to increase the production numbers from 4 to 9 million while the company is using the same copper and lead as credits to come up with a $7 per oz cash cost on only the silver production of 4 million.

To: loantech who wrote (58823)	4/20/2008 4:02:18 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78405

usa.v - getting the lead out was and is a great idea, especially the way they made the top-dollar sale on lead, but it did set them back some on production, with the related development, and Ms Market is saying the concept is unproven as yet ... an upward trend in milling will improve that, and we should have numbers confirming that trend soon, eh Think baystock is right there, can't count Cu/Pb sales in again, they're already used as credits? ... also, that many t/d is a bit far ahead, like next year? ... not sure, don't like numbers on sundays, get plenty of them through the week 'Maybe at some point a certain NLW will even write it up' - is this a strong possibility? ... imminent? ... it would make considerable sense, likely look quite good on said NLW's record a few months down the line ... it's absolutely A-1 on the political risk scale, sure, still stuff happens everywhere at various times, you never know Don't write off Ecuador [not that you personally ever wrote it in, lol], story is not over there, by a long shot ... nor in Chávezstan, though that one could take a while ... but you know, like they say, change is just the way things are