Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (30707)	4/20/2008 4:40:23 PM
From: MCsweet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78673

The HTWC letter actually had some pretty good information on interest rate spreads, types of assets and liabilities, etc. If they have negative earnings due to marks on their loans worsening, I have no problem with that. If they are going to take a bath on bad loans and claim bad market conditions, that would bug me, but there is still a great deal of cushion in the stock. I disagree that no stock is too cheap to sell. There can be stocks too cheap to sell. Cyclical stocks, stocks with significant bankruptcy risk, stocks bleeding cash, etc are NOT among those. On signs of seriously deteriorating fundamentals, one should get out, even at a large loss. Solid, under-leveraged, below-book values plays with margins of safety can be too cheap to sell IMO, for the following reason. Value stocks can often languish and then move up quite dramatically at the most random of times (ANS a recent example). Forecasting short-term performance is notoriously difficult, and I think a true value investor should be prepared to hold for at least a couple of years. Dumping based off short-term results is generally a mistake IMO. That being said, it is preferable to see a positive catalyst coming up. Fed rate cuts should help lower their borrowing costs over time (as cds and other borrowings reset lower), but with deteriorating credit conditions we will see how the business goes. If management instituted a dividend or buyback that would greatly help, but they haven't made any mention of those. MC

To: Spekulatius who wrote (30707)	4/22/2008 1:52:53 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78673

Rice Shortage Prompts Costco Calif. Rice Rationing cbs5.com My wife told me that Rice was sold out at Costco as well as in several Asian markets. This is pretty much unheard of since the 70's. many people are obviously hoarding - the price of rice has doubled so far in Y2008. More instances of this with some other goods and we have runaway inflation. Folks will think that they can't buy what they need any more which basically means that money is worthless. This sort of reminds we off an incidence when i was visiting East Germany. I was walking through Leipzig downtown, when we noticed a line started to form in front of a store probably about 200 yards away. Nobody could see what store it where the line was forming to and much less so why the line was forming. All of a sudden folks around us started to run. A lady next to me was saying "Look, there is something to buy down there..." This is how a system self destructs once people loose confidence that they can go out and get what they want/need.