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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (3826)	4/21/2008 12:13:17 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4590

@Joe - Foundry I don't have the 100% correct speach from Bertrand/Dario in mind, but if I remember correctly, they are heading to near 0 numbers by the end the year -> relativly linear process. Sure, the cost numbers could come down faster - I really thought they would. Again, it has to be seen, what Numonyx in the next will do. For me, it seems, that the pricing action in Q1 was way less aggressive compared to past times. And SPSN explained the Rev. shortfall with China (snow) -> whether this is 100% true - I really don't know. Its easy to spot, that we will need above 650Mio. in Revs. to get into a much healthier position, 700+ would be better. I don't know, whether Dario could provide such level of detail in this early stage, but he repeated the 2500Mio. year-goal. Lets take some small higher number for Q2 and we end at 1150-1180 for the first half. This would mean around 1320-1350 for the second half, which is 660-675 on average. Depends on foundry, but if they could 700mio. in Q4 with near zero foundry, a healthy SP1 in a good pricing environment, the toughest times should be over. I "enjoyed" the book value increase, which provides some floor for the stock, which didn't came in as I expected. When I look at one example into AMD, I really don't know, why they trade above book 1x with this outlook? Right now we are trading at around 160x3=480 / 1709 = 0,28x. I'm really wondering what the market will do with QI, which will post today heavy losses I expect the book value to fall to 2100-2200Mio. Euros, which will be around 3400Mio. $ => P/B = 1,23/3,4=0,36 which is even higher than SPSN. I will post the devastating results in a few hours. The bad for QI, that Q2 will not get better -> I assume some small pricing increases, but less volume and only a small productivity increase -> losses could shrink to 400-500Mio. Euros = 650Mio. $. So with that in mind, I would assume now, that book value after Q2 for QI should be 1500Mio. Euros => forward p/b= 0,52 which is nearly 2x as high as SPSN. Again, SPSN is deeply underpriced (we know that for long). BUGGI