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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (30732)	4/21/2008 8:33:50 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78652

Paul here is an interesting report on the Marcellus shale region. Notice how much acre leases are fetching. It may have peaked. . . . Keystone State Drilling? A gusher of money could soon meet many residents in Pennsylvania. As Priya David reports, energy companies are rushing to extract a huge reserve of natural gas buried below the Keystone State. cbsnews.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (30732)	4/22/2008 3:46:37 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78652

As much as I am energy bull, I think that most companies in the sector are becoming fairly valued in this runup. This does not mean much, since bulls tend to overshoot as bears do. I think companies are being valued for ~$80-90 oil now though and no significant recession related consumption drop. I think that gas plays may be even more overvalued, although it may be hard to say with the huge runup of agro commodities that may require more gas. I would be cautious adding here. Most Bakken and Marcellus plays you mentioned look very fairly valued or even overvalued in some cases. Some Canadian oilsands may still be cheap, some are quite expensive and most are very tough to value. PBR is not cheap, but may be still attractive based on all the oil they are finding. The really cheap plays are mostly the companies with big refinery component. I am not convinced refiners will do well and market agrees so far. However, we may be wrong and then MRO, COP would be great plays here. PTR ran up with Chinese plan of "subsidizing" refiners suffering from price controls. Although I have position in PTR, I really don't like that it depends so much on the government whim, so I won't add and may even sell. I bought today a small position in GPOR mentioned on oil sands thread. I may buy a bit of BSIC if it decides to swing down again.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (30732)	5/6/2008 11:19:34 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78652

chk making a new high today. stock is almost a double from where i started buying it and mention it on this thread. I havent done any valuation on it in quite awhile. any thoughts as to what its worth now? A guy that I respect Jeff Rubin of CIBC world markets is calling for $13.00 NG in 2009. I expect that if he's right about that CHK is worth at least $65 and maybe a lot more. BTW I own some of a different endeavour now- end. an oil and gas play from Ed A.