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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RealMuLan who wrote (78157)4/22/2008 3:37:13 PM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 116555
 
Chinese factories asking American customers 30% price.

Ready to pay more for Chinese goods?

11:23 AM CDT on Sunday, April 20, 2008

For years, American importers and Chinese factory managers have been having the same conversation. The importers would demand lower prices for products destined for American shelves. Factory managers would counter with a long list of reasons why they needed to charge more. Most of the time, American importers would prevail, and Wal-Mart shoppers would rejoice.

Not anymore. The era of cheap Chinese consumer goods may finally be ending, thanks to irrepressible inflation.

Now when the Chinese present their lists, some American importers are conceding higher prices, meaning that U.S. shoppers, for the first time in years, are starting to pick up the tab for rising costs in China. Some Chinese factories are now asking their American customers for price increases of as much as 30 percent.

And this is only the beginning: We'll be paying higher prices for Chinese goods for years to come.

Consumers of Chinese exports (read: you and I) have for the past two decades benefited from an extraordinary confluence of factors. China's desire to attract foreign investment, rural workers' hunger for higher wages than they could earn on the farm and excess capacity in nearly every industry helped limit price increases for Chinese exports. The renminbi was undervalued, wages were low, raw materials were cheap, and government officials turned a blind eye to labor and environmental violations.

But now a perfect storm has hit China's manufacturers. So far this year, the renminbi has been appreciating at a 16 percent annualized rate. And prices for raw materials, which account for 60 to 70 percent of manufacturers' costs, are soaring. Hundred-dollar-a-barrel oil has raised transport costs.

Although some economists expect raw material prices to weaken in the second half of this year, in the long term, the emergence of millions of new car drivers, homebuyers and office workers in India and China will keep the price of steel, plastic and other raw materials high.

At the same time, China is rolling out wage increases around the country and tightening its labor laws. Leaders hope that better protection for workers will placate its increasingly restive manufacturing workforce. But a tidal shift in the country's demographics – a dwindling supply of young workers as a result of the "one child" policy in effect since 1979 – will counteract those efforts.

China's Generation Y, the children born after the one-child policy came into effect, are increasingly aware of their rights to a legal wage, health insurance and time off. Their demands for better treatment will continue to drive up the cost of manufacturing. Already, southern China's Guangdong province, known as "the workshop of the world," is short 2 million workers, the equivalent of 14 percent of America's entire manufacturing workforce.

The problem for American retailers and consumers hooked on $3 T-shirts and $30 DVD players is that there is no other China waiting in the wings to make cheap goods reliably for American shoppers.

American importers are now arriving by the planeload in Vietnam, hoping to take advantage of the country's lower wages. But Vietnam, hard as it tries, has only 85 million people – the size of one Chinese province. And only a fraction of its population is suitable for factory work.

India, the other country often mentioned as a China surrogate, has not yet managed to get its act together to take advantage of China's rising export prices. Importers say India is good at certain things – embroidery, for instance – but not at the volume production that the world depends on for cheap goods. India's road and port infrastructure, while improving, is nowhere near as efficient as China's.

So importers are looking back to countries they once rejected in favor of China – Indonesia, Mexico and Malaysia. And they are looking ahead to countries not yet integrated into the global consumer-goods supply chain, such as Brazil and Kenya.

Every country, however, offers its own special risks: strong labor unions in one, political instability in another. None offer the one-stop shop appeal of China, where factories make everything under the sun.

For the time being, then, we will all still be buying a lot of "Made in China" products – and paying ever more for them.

Alexandra Harney is a former Financial Times correspondent and author of "The China Price: The True Cost of Chinese Competitive Advantage," which was published last month. Her e-mail address is thechinaprice@gmail.com.



To: RealMuLan who wrote (78157)4/24/2008 5:43:56 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
[Bush -- Not just let the poor get poorer, let them die faster]--WASHINGTON -- The House voted Wednesday to block the Bush administration from cutting federal spending on Medicaid health care for the poor by $13 billion over the next five years. President Bush has threatened a veto, but supporters have more than enough votes in the House to override him, and maybe in the Senate, too. "
washingtonpost.com



To: RealMuLan who wrote (78157)5/5/2008 11:17:40 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
From The Daily Reckoning --THE MAGIC OF ‘PRODUCT SUBSTITUTION’
by The Mogambo Guru

John Williams of shadowstats.com is quoted in an interview by Kevin Phillips in Harper’s magazine, which was re-printed in the St. Petersburg Times newspaper under the title “Hard Numbers” with the subtitle “Think the economy’s bad? It’s worse than you know; blame a half century of presidential Pollyanna Creep.”

I did not know that John Williams had cleverly coined the phrase “Pollyanna Creep” to describe how the White House, the Congress and the repugnant Federal Reserve, starting with John Kennedy circa 1960 and continuing unabated, and worsening, all the way through to Bill Clinton where Mr. Phillips’ chronology ends, continuously came up with one stinking lie after another to disguise the horrendous inflation in prices, and rise in unemployment, that resulted from the egregious fiscal and monetary performances.

The article goes into such frauds as “imputed income” (such as the “value” you receive from living in your own home, or the “value” of your free checking account), the total of which Mr. Williams calculates was 15% of total GDP (!) in 2007! Wow! “Imputed income” was 15% of GDP? Hahahaha! We’re freaking doomed!

Such laughable duplicity continues into the description of the phantom jobs conjured up by the “Birth/Death Model” (which assumes that new businesses are being formed, and employees being hired, which are too new for anything to show up in the data), and the six separate calculations of unemployment, of which one of the most inclusive shows unemployment at a terrifying 9%! Nine! One out of eleven people in the work force in unemployed! Yikes!

Then, finally, we get to how to magically reduce inflation with “product substitution” in the consumer’s shopping basket (“if flank steak gets too expensive, people are assumed to shift to hamburger, but nobody is assumed to move up to filet mignon”), continuing with the lunacy of the inflation-reducing scam of “geometric weighting” of the items still in the shopping basket (“goods and services in which costs are rising most rapidly get a lower weighting for a presumed reduction in consumption”), and concluding with the infamous “hedonic adjustment”, (which even the author says is “an unusual computation by which additional quality is attributed to a product or service”).

It is this last fraud that has been used to such success by Mogambo Inter-Planetary Industries (MIPI), by which we commit an as-yet legalized extortion by utilizing the word “improved”. The basic premise was outlined in the MIPI business plan, which is cleverly explained in our corporate motto, namely “Crappy products made out of cheap materials with shoddy workmanship, and passing the savings on to you!”

But before we ship anything a stupid customer ordered, we send a letter saying that the order cannot be fulfilled per contractual price since the product they ordered was “improved” before their stupid check cleared, and therefore the new price should be higher because of the hedonic adjustment for the increase in quality, and if they had some “problems” with that, then you could take it up with Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve, ya freaking moron, which is who first came up with this silly crap, and if they still wanted their “Mogambo Ultra Blow-Up Doll” with the optional appendages and pendulous breasts, then they should send another $15.95 in cash, which is their cost for the extra quality inherent in saying “improved” without having to prove anything! Hahaha!

The business plan assumes that sometimes there will be people who will actually send the extra $15.95, whereupon we send them another letter demanding another $15.95. Hahaha! Suckers!

But, as per the business plan, we are sure that they will all eventually give up and demand their stupid money back, like THAT is going to happen (see Section Two of the MIPI Business Plan: “Skipping Town: The Fun Part”, which I cheerfully title “Starting over again, but with a lot of money this time!”).

The point is not that P.T. Barnum was right when he said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”, or that my first girlfriend’s father was right when he said, “You’ll never amount to anything other than a Worthless Piece Of Mogambo Crap (WPOMC)!”, but about how we got to be such suckers to let the Federal Reserve and the Congress (except Ron Paul) do this “lying about inflation” crap to us, and how people being ignorant stupid suckers is so very vital to the success of Mogambo Enterprises, Inc.

Where these people came from has always befuddled me, but which has now been explained by Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Rob H., who writes:

“Dear Mogambo, I have long believed that people, in general, over time, were getting stupider and now have a ‘grand unified stupidity theory’ equation that I think can serve as the axiomatic equation for future theorist to expand upon. If true, this equation is very disturbing, especially if you add a time element into it and the associated exponent.” He notes, “This may explain why we are where we are in the world.”

My finger poised over the “Delete” button as my eyes drifted down over the few equations he provided, and through the rising glaze of incomprehension of math or anything that even LOOKS like math, I still knew enough that I could probably use this to get one of those elusive Nobel Prizes in economics (and that luscious cash prize of millions of dollars!).

So, for the official record, my completely original work that I came up with all by myself, and I declare under oath that I never even heard of anyone named Rob, especially one named Rob H., and that I have, personally, alone, proved that “one half-wit multiplied with another half-wit = a quarter-wit”, which is expressed algebraically as 0.5 X 0.5 = 0.25 wit (a “quarter wit”), which soon becomes 0.25 X 0.25 = 0.0625 wit (a “one-bit wit”).

But the irrepressible JMR Rob looked at this halfwit breeding thing and came up with the brilliant Zen koan “Therefore: Etc.” Hahaha! Perfect! Hahahaha! So we can share credit! Hahaha!

Until next week,

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning