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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (9330)	4/22/2008 11:55:31 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 50053

Great post especially regarding TA, but I think the Yen thing is relatively recent and it simply represents Japanese physical buyers leaving the gold market as their currency strengthens. At some pt in the near future this indicator will lose it's value as well. Of course there's also plenty of deleveraging w/the Yen carry trade unwinding as well - (bigger factor initially). Both of these are ST in the nature. Develeraging will eventually draw down and Japan buyers will be replaced by buyers from the US and elsewhere. That said right now odds look good that gold will go lower ST. Whether that's 875, 850, 825 or all the way back to the 65 weekly ema remains to be seen. I have many reasons FA and TA for believing this. Presently I'm fairly low allocation as I've mostly exited out the last few days (mostly last week). I think more than anything this is due the Euro being over-extended overvalued here. The Dollar has it's problems but so do the other fiats. Right now the race is from one fiat to another and gold gets some marginal buying here and there from CBs (as it's pays no interest). Eventually security of principal will trump any thoughts of interest payments and we'll embark on the next stage. Right now we need some cleansing ST. Tend to agree w/Soros that all commodities look to be in a bubble. Gold looks cheap relative to other commodities (especially oil LT), but initially just like 2001 everything may go down together. As always there's always a chance that things may go up from here. No fundamental change in the US economy/financials. Gold sentiment is somewhat ugly, but would like to see more on SI capitulate. If it's going to happen it'll probably happen this week, but it's got low odds imho. Still too much denial and faith overall that the world economy will continue to grow. Slowdown should eventually feed on themselves. How can the world economy not slowdown with the US and the EU slowing down at the same time? Once this bit of faith gets busted gold should be an excellent buy again. Look how long we were into the subprime mess before it finally got noticed? An IT Dollar rally would crush most commodities and be welcome by most CBs. What would it take? A smashing or the Euro or simply a flight to safety if all the world stock markets start heading south again. Still about 20% PMs. There's always something that looks good and I want some exposure in case I'm wrong ST. Easier to buy back when you have a foot in the door (mentally mostly). That's my current read FWIW.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (9330)	4/23/2008 12:27:50 AM
From: Webster Groves	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50053

Sorry for not being a team player here, but I fail to see what I am supposed to nod my head too. $GOLD is already priced in dollars, so one would expect to see a 100% correlation of $GOLD to $GOLD/$USD, and that is exactly what the chart shows. As for $GOLD/YEN, once again the correlation is about 90% (to my eye) to $GOLD alone. What does this mean ? It simply means that when gold goes down, it goes down. There is no phase offset predictor from gold/currency ratio to offer an edge for trading. By that I mean the gold/yen ratio dropped exactly when $Gold dropped and nothing else. So what does this all mean ? It means that when gold goes down we can pull some mumbo-jumbo and predict it after the fact. Aside from these small differences I agree 100% with your "analysis". Mo' later (isn't that how a guru signs off ?) wg

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (9330)	4/23/2008 7:24:14 AM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 50053

I agree that the yen is very important in the carry trade but it does not appear to be a leading indicator with regard to the price of gold in U$. The moves happen at the same time. ST are often broken during ABC consolidations. You are falling into the Gartman trap. Gold is in a bull market plain and simple..that it the magic bullet.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (9330)	4/24/2008 12:36:58 AM
From: Wayne Campbell	Respond to of 50053

good presentation, but the real pattern stands out like a sore thumb....look at the tops in both cases....700, and 1000. Price is drawn to key nominal turning points. 700 has a mental and emotional pull and I believe this is emphasized in people of certain descents. Cars are named after numbers like this. 1000.... beautiful round and full..scientifically marks an order of magnitude change...new millenium Unfortunately, these numbers have no fundamental basis for the commodity in question...once these points have been reached and breached, the orgasm is over the underlying market takes over. Price has gone up, probably quite a bit, for no fundamental reason and now pulls back. The run to 1000 was a doozie because....the pull was so strong. It is the King of nominal turning points. Now we base, find fundamental stability, fill gaps... all that great stuff...now we find out how real this gold bull is. Try as we might, we cannot predict the market....if so we would not bother tapping little keys on dusty keyboards late at night..we would be partying with the beautiful people. We cannot predict the market, but we can take advantage of others greed and fear. Unfortunately, cooler heads than ours will take advantage of us and skim some if not all our profits each time our heads swells with success. wc