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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33692)	4/23/2008 10:40:11 AM
From: blazenzim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217835

TJ, of course there is no wheat anywhere in America. The harvest comes later this year. Wheat available now was harvested last year. Last year, Australia had virtually no crop due to drought. This year's harvest will be massive. Wheat futures have crashed from $12 to $8. Commodity booms breed commodity busts.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33692)	4/23/2008 11:16:49 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217835

The aggies look like a bubble to me, one that could burst precipitously. Trend is still very bullish for those with a seriously long term horizon. I am adding SRS on weakness. Gold correcting substantially in the future but that's OK as the multi-year prospects are very good. Note and note and note again that the Saudi oil minister yesterday stated that there are capacity issues all along the supply chain, i.e., including the Kingdom. Even Russia's spare capacity, which some smart folks thought would have the ability to dictate price, isn't what it was cracked up to be. Mexico's Cantarell field is gasping its last breaths. Norway down. UK down. Peak oil has been here. Only question is this: will higher price due to supply restrictions continue indefinitely even in the face of recession? Will demand destruction, in other words, be enough to tank the price when supply is itself restricted? Answer that question correctly and you make a fortune. And the answer is.... Maybe. It is indeed possible that the recession will not be quite as bad as previously thought, in which case oil is the next opportunity. In any event, there is no way that substitution efforts will be sufficient by the 2009-2011 time frame to make a difference. We are looking at $200 oil in the next couple of years. But if the Dems get the Presidency, we'll see excess profits taxes like we had before.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (33692)	4/23/2008 5:40:50 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217835

TJ, when the choice is food or ethanol for vehicles, the politicians will very quickly be informed that the dopey idea of burning food to avoid some Vanuatans being given a free entry to another country to avoid wet feet in 100 years is to be ditched. People were willing to go along with the silly Greenhouse Effect games while it involved putting their booze bottles in a recycling bin instead of the main rubbish. But they won't put up with Greenhouse doomster drivel after a long cold winter and no food on the table. Fat Al Gore and his dirty great carbon footprint are going to get short shrift. It looks as though the end of the CO2 mania is in sight. Meanwhile, China burns umpty megatons of coal. New Zealand's ridiculous politicians are hassling we local yokels to cut CO2 output while we ship coal to China! The NZ politicians thought that NZ was clean and green, but if CO2 and methane are considered polluters, it turns out we are environmental bandits. Now, people who planted forests decades ago are in trouble because they aren't allowed to cut down the sacred trees which are storing carbon, and plant cows instead, where the real money is these days. What a shambles. And all for the false idea that people need to cut down CO2 emissions which if anything, assuming that CO2 really does act to keep us warm, is preventing return to glacial times which are VERY bad for people. Now, the sunspot cycle is looking very bad for people with temperatures dropping. The ice age might be under way already! Next winter might be a real beauty. Mqurice