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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (61615)	4/24/2008 7:33:02 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 544313

>>Kate, things are not always the result of a conspiracy. They are more likely the result of bad policy. In this case the bad policy is bio fuels - which is a bipartisan disaster for the world.<< Bob - I was not aware that anyone was making ethanol or any other biofuel out of rice. Or wheat. Or anything else besides corn. So how do biofuels affect the supply of grains other than corn? - Allen

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (61615)	4/24/2008 7:38:08 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 544313

I urge you not to jump on the typical leftist conspiracy/speculator band wagon of talking points without facts. Bob, I just don't know what to say about a comment like that. You seem to be a reasonably nice guy but then throw comments out there like that. I gather it does something for you to be a provocateur. That's the only thing I can see. For your information, conspiracy thinking is not only not a prerogative, historically, of the left; in this country it's been far more often found on the right. So "typical" is, at best, wrong. At worst, much worse. Just check a rather old but still relevant book, Richard Hofstadter's The Paranoid Style in American Politics. amazon.com As for speculators, you know that conspiracies and left politics (I'm certainly one in the way you fashion your political views), are not terribly good speculators. So, if you wish to make assertions like that, come prepared to defend them.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (61615)	4/25/2008 12:14:55 AM
From: Katelew	Respond to of 544313

I urge you not to jump on the typical leftist conspiracy/speculator band wagon of talking points without facts I didn't make these charges because of some leftist philosophy. That's laughable. I've been active in the markets for 30+ and have seen price patterns like these before. My focus is primarily farm commodities right now. Oil probably has some spec excess in it, too, but is running truer to fundamentals than are farm commodities. Whole forests are being razed and additional farmland is being planted as we speak. Hybrid seeds and urea based fertilizers are plentiful. There's even a new hybrid rice my family is investigating that allows young rice plants to be underwater for awhile without dying, as heavy rains in a paddy can often destroy the emerging plant if it goes underwater at all. My point is that food production is following the increased demand....people haven't been sitting on their hands. There are trends, we all read them, putting some pressure on prices, ten year drought in Australia has steadily reduced rice growing. But there have been no forces so strong as to cause the price of a world staple like rice to DOUBLE since August. Fundamentals always drive the prices of something partway up and then speculative excess takes it the rest of the way. For heaven's sakes, Bob, you just went through such a cycle in house prices, of all things.....a relatively illiquid asset that one can't easily buy on margin. Those prices weren't rising totally on increasing numbers of people buying homes. Our population didn't increase 40% in 2-3 years. I'm totally familiar with all the demographics and changing consumption patterns you cited. The long term trends are clear regarding food costs and third world countries eating better. But remember rice is a staple....poorer countries are eating better, meaning they're moving somewhat away from this kind of staple and adding more meat, fruits, and veggies. Anyway, we'll see...but I think farm prices are right now in a significant speculative bubble .....it will pop as they all do....but people in third world countries will die as a result. I'm not making some pinhead, academic leftist argument...far from it...I make money trading hot stocks and trends... and am wired to resist regulation of markets. Everybody will make the same observations your Don Coxe does, because they have to explain after the fact why something happens. And he's correct about the LT trends...I'm not being critical. But you have to be a market speculator, not an analyst, to be able to recognize when the price of something....stock, bond, currency, real estate, or commodity....crosses an invisible line into speculative excess. I'm not the only one, anyway, that sees this. The CBOT raised margin requirement about 3 weeks ago to try to squeeze out speculation...that's always a tip. The problem is that prices can run for a long time afterwards before the turn comes and people have to keep eating. This sickens me watching it, but I'm not calling for regulations. Perhaps it will correct itself soon and remove the need for it. But most likely this will be another one of those bubbles that books are written about.

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (61615)	4/25/2008 8:01:40 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 544313

<<<you can blame speculators - or you can recognize the changing demographics of the world.>>> There it is in a nutshell. It is not an either / or situation. It is both. Lefties who think it is entirely a conspiracy are obviously out of it. Whereas it is not as obvious that people on the right are just as nutty, they are just more devious. They are better at hiding their nuttiness. The truth is somewhere in between, but not necessarily 50-50. It is more like 20/80 or 30/70.