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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ruffian who wrote (262621)	4/24/2008 7:23:42 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 281500

I could see him trying something in the lead up to the US elections, gambling that this would torpedo the Republicans, and the the Democrats would support pulling out. OTOH he can't be 100% sure of that, and restarting a full scale fight (esp. one where he wouldn't have a lot of success) would probably decrease his popularity and ability to influence the future politics in Iraq, except among his core supporters. If he takes this path he's really taking a big risk.

To: Ruffian who wrote (262621)	4/24/2008 7:24:03 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

The Sunnis have rejoined Maliki's government, which now contains Sunnis, Kurds, Shiri and Dawa Shiite parties. Moqty al Sadr is isolated in parliement. If Moqty tries to go to war, he will do so as a perceived agent of Iran. He hasn't got the cover of fighting Sunni/AQI extremists anymore. While the Americans are still in Iraq, it's a suicidal operation for him. He would only do it imo if his Iranian masters ordered an Iraqi Tet offensive to try to get Obama elected.