To: tejek who wrote (380162 ) 4/24/2008 9:15:34 PM From: i-node Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1574989 In a major upset that shows just how strong opposition to the Iraq War is in even very red states, It shows nothing of the sort. In fact, the more competent analysts of the race didn't even find the war a significant factor. A more fact-based analysis considers it a geographic split, which makes sense -- the district includes South Haven, which is just south of Memphis, as well as Tupelo, MS. Trying to blame everything on Iraq may make you feel better, Ted, but it does not comport with reality.But there were several other factors that contributed to Childers’ surprising performance in the first round of the special election. With the two candidates hailing from opposite parts of the district, the race became as much a geographic battle as an ideological struggle. Most of the voters who were from the eastern part of the district — including Wicker’s hometown of Tupelo — voted for Childers by significant margins. Davis won only eight of the 24 counties in the district and lost the district’s ancestral base of Lee County (Tupelo) by a 21-point margin. He was able to send the race into a runoff by overwhelmingly carrying his home base of DeSoto County, the most populous county in the district. “You have people who voted for their geographic interests, rather than stick with the party,” said Marty Wiseman, executive director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University. The numbers in Lee County — normally a Republican bastion — were especially striking, given that it encompassed Wicker’s connections to Tupelo. One Republican operative in Mississippi said Davis would need to turn out more Republicans in Lee County to defeat Childers in the runoff. The geographic split has also come up as an issue in the campaign, with Childers making the argument that Davis is concentrating on representing only the fast-growing western part of the district, outside the Memphis suburbs. “The people in the eastern half of the district are concerned about having a congressman who’s more engaged with Memphis than engaged with them,” said Childers spokesman Joel Coon. “We’re benefiting from a lot of concerns from a lot of the people in the eastern part of the district.”