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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quartersawyer who wrote (5603)	4/27/2008 10:01:29 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

A WIP sawyer, << Are the numbers at hand for (asp's X units)/total for the top few? (revenue share) >> Comparative monetary metrics (revenue, profit, op. margin, ASP) in 3 currencies (Euro, Won, USD) for each, will be available for the top 5 handset OEMs. Soon, but I'm not exactly sure how soon. Days, however, not weeks. - Eric -

To: quartersawyer who wrote (5603)	4/28/2008 1:16:08 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

Abstract of Q1 2008 Handset Vendors Comparative Results Major Manufacturers' Key Handset Sales Metrics for Q1 2008¹ Nokia Samsung SEricsson Motorola LG Other² ======= ======= ========= ======== ====== ====== Revenue (EUR Bil) €9.263 €4.302 €2.702 €2.089 €2.067 €4.405 Revenue (USD Bil) $14.636 $6.792 $4.269 $3.299 $3.263 $6,646 Revenue (KRW Trn) w14.791 w6.650 w4.314 w3.334 w3,195 w7.029 Units 115.5m 46.3m 22.3m 27.4m 24.4m 53.6m Sell-In Share³ 39.9% 16.0% 7.7% 9.5% 8.4% 19.4% ASP (EUR) €79 €89 €121 €76 €83 €79 ASP (USD) $125 $141 $191 $120 $131 $124 Op. Margin 20.3% 16.0% 6.7% (12.7%) 13.9% 0.00% Op. Profit (EUR Bil) €1.883 €0.686 €0.193 (€0.265) €0.251 €0.000 Op. Profit (USD Bil) $2.975 $1,083 $0.305 ($0.418) $0.338 $0.000 Op. Profit (KRW Trn) w3.007 w1,060 w0.308 (w0.423) w0.444 w0.000 · ¹ Currency conversions at Q1 ending March 31, 2008 Interbank rate ² Eric's Guestimate of Other's Consolidated ASP, Revenue, and Op. Profit ³ Unit Share: Based on consensus of ABI, IDC, Nokia, and Strategy Analytics Q1 sell-in of 289.5 million units. Other Notes on Handset Sales: • Nokia handset revenue includes ~€0.138 ($218) billion from software and services. • Handset revenue and op, profit shown for Samsung is actually for the Telecoms division and includes ~$0.161 from infrastructure (Korean WCDMA primarily in this Quarter). As with LG, consolidated revenue (net of intradivisional sales) is posted while both companies also show divisional sales which includes internal transactions between divisions. • In this quarter Samsung's average operating profit per phone was €16 (€10.5 in Q4 07) almost identical to Nokia's €16.3. But Nokia's was achieved across a much broader portfolio, with 40% of the volume selling at less than €40. • Branded 'Others' revenue, and operating profit is strictly a guesstimate calculated from a guestimated ASP of $124 which I think is accurate within ±5%, but although a few 2nd tier niche players like RIM, Apple, HTC (partially unbranded) and possibly Sharp are quite profitable and sell high ASP units, the vast majority of 'other' players sell primarily on price at low ASP, and very few are profitable. On a consolidate basis they are probably selling at a loss which is why I plugged in zero profit. Q1 2008 Market Share: Handset Units and Revenue, and (PreTax) Operating Profit¹ ¹ Positive only -- i.e. not netted down by Motorola's or 'Others" losses. The Big Five Nokia Samsung SEricsson Motorola LG ======= ======= ========= ======== ====== Units 235.9m 49.0% 19.6% 9.5% 11.6% 10.3% Revenue $32.259b 45.4% 21.1% 13.2% 10.2% 10.1% Op. Profit $4.701b 63.3% 23.0% 6,5% 0.0% 7.2% · All Branded Vendors Nokia Samsung SEricsson Motorola LG Others ======= ======= ========= ======== ====== ====== Units 289.5m 39.9% 16.0% 7.7% 9.5% 8.4% 19.4% Revenue $38.905b 37.6% 17.5% 11.0% 8.5% 8.4% 17.1% Op. Profit $4.701b 63.3% 23.0% 6,5% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Q1 2008 Global Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Strategy Analytics) Vendor Q1 '07 Q4 '07 2007 Q1 '08 ===================================== ====== ====== ======= ====== Nokia 91.1m 133.5m 437.1m 115.5m 36.9% 40.6% 38.9% 40.9% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Samsung 34.8m 46.3m 161.1m 46.3m 14.1% 14.1% 14.4% 16.4% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Motorola 45.4m 40.9m 159.0m 27.4m 18.4% 12.4% 14.2% 9.7% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- LG Electronics 15.8m 23.7m 80.5m 24.4m 6.4% 7.2% 7.2% 8.6% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Sony Ericsson 21.8m 30.8m 103.4m 22.3m 8.8% 9.4% 9.2% 7.9% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Others 38.3m 53.9m 181.5m 46.4m 15.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.4% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 247.2m 329.1m 1122.6m 282.3m Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ------------------------------------- ------ ------ ------- ------ Total Growth Year-over-Year +11.0% +12.3% +12.0% +14.2% tinyurl.com Consensus Q1 Unit Sales and Share Estimates Strategy ABI Analytics Research IDC Nokia Consensus ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= Reported Big 5 235.9m 235.9m 235.9m 235.9m 235.9m Others 46.4m 51.1m 53.7m 57.1m 53.6m --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- Total Units 282.3m 289.0m 291.6m 295.0m 289.5m Estimated Mobile Wireless Handset Volume by Access Technology (Nokia's View) Q1'08 Q4'07 QoQ Q1'07 YoY ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== GSM 202m 233m -13% 179m +13% WCDMA 47m 52m -10% 31m +50% CDMA 43m 48m -10% 41m +5% Other 3m 3m - 3m - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Total 295m 336m -12% 253m +17% Currency Forex Impact on Q1 2008 ASP, Revenue and (PreTax) Operating Profit Currency forex was very much in play in Q1, negatively affecting Nokia and Ericsson who account in the Euro but bill ~50% of their sales in currencies pegged to the USD, and positively affecting Samsung and LG who also sell heavily into markets denominated to the USD ... A weakening in the won against the U.S. dollar was also behind the solid quarterly results, [of the Koreans] as it boosted price competitiveness overseas. The South Korean currency tumbled to a multi-year low of 1,030 against the greenback in mid-March, down from 940 a year ago. - Thomson Financial - forbes.com USD ¦ Won ¦ Euro ===== ====== ===== March 31 2008 $1.00 w1,010 €0.66 December 31 2007 $1.00 w937 €0.68 March 31 2007 $1.00 w953 €0.75 December 31 2002 $1.00 w1,199 €0.95 Since December 2002, the Euro has not fallen below parity with the U.S. dollar but began an unprecedented ascendency. Five years ago, when the forex balance was shifting and Nokia sold a device to a network operator in USD or its equivalent for $125 it hit Nokia's books at €115. Seven years ago that was €142. On December 31 2007, it was €85. Today it returns €79. Five years ago the Koreans sold a device to a network operator in USD or its equivalent for $125 it hit the Koreans' books at w149,338. Seven years ago that was w165,450. On December 31 2007, it was w117,066. Today it returns w124,527. Source Links • Nokia: nokia.com --> tinyurl.com (presentation slides) • Samsung: tinyurl.com • Sony Ericsson: www2.sonyericsson.com • Motorola: tinyurl.com • LG: lge.com\|MENU_IR\|MENU.jhtml Caveat As always it is possible and perhaps probable that in compiling the tables above that I have made typos, transposition errors, calculation errors, or currency conversion errors. If anyone spots one I'd appreciate being so advised. - Eric -