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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: koan who wrote (78417)	4/27/2008 1:34:06 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

27 Apr 2008 15:32 GMT =DJ World Oil Mkt Faces Biggest Supply Cuts In Yrs On UK,Nigeria By Spencer Swartz OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--The world oil market faced its biggest crude supply disruption in recent years as roughly 2.5% of global production was shut at the weekend because of labor disputes in Nigeria and the U.K. that showed few signs of ending soon. The strikes over pay and pensions could be resolved in a number of days, but even if agreements are reached quickly it will be weeks before full oil production can be restored. Complex drilling and pipeline systems require many days to ramp-up service gradually. The unrest in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, and the U.K. strike underline the fragile state of the global oil system. The supply shut-ins are also of concern because they involve high-quality and easy-to-refine oil that is processed into gasoline. Prolonged disruption could have major implications for drivers in the northern-hemisphere summer. With global spare production capacity at historical lows after years of underinvestment, the crude supply system has become hostage to isolated events - leaving consumers exposed to spikes in oil prices. Friday, benchmark U.S. crude futures, which were also supported by reports of a confrontation between a U.S. cargo ship and Iranian boats, soared nearly $2.50 to $118.52 a barrel. The strike and recent rebel attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria as well as the U.K. dispute have shut in around 2.14 million barrels a day. This amounts to about 2.5% of the roughly 86 million barrels a day of oil consumed globally and is the biggest disruption to world supply since hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico shut in a large chunk of U.S. output three years ago. There were no signs at the weekend that emergency oil stocks might be tapped to ease market concerns, but the International Energy Agency said it was watching developments in Nigeria and the U.K. "As with any supply disruption, the IEA is closely monitoring the situation," Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's oil market division, told Dow Jones Newswires. The Paris-based IEA is the energy advisor to around 30 mostly wealthy and large energy consuming nations and would coordinate any action to release emergency stocks. The agency has ordered emergency oil inventories to be tapped just four times - the last time in 2005 after the U.S. hurricane disruptions took out more than 1 million barrels a day of production - since it was created in 1974 after the OPEC oil embargo. The IEA needs less than 24 hours to consult its members to determine if coordinated action on tapping emergency stocks is needed, the agency says. Such stocks are meant to be used only when substantial amounts of global oil output are interrupted. IEA member states like the U.S. and France are required to hold stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports. Sunday, the U.K. oil workers' two-day strike was becoming a costly and annoying affair for the government, companies and drivers, who in some cases were finding gasoline prices sharply higher than in past days and filling stations out of fuel. The strike forced the closure Sunday of the 700,000-barrel-a-day Forties oil pipeline after hundreds of workers at the Grangemouth refinery and the company Ineos PLC, which runs the refinery, were unable to agree on a new pension plan. Talks between the Unite union and Ineos had not restarted on Sunday after breaking down last week, Unite spokeswoman Catherine Bithell said. The North Sea pipeline, which is operated by BP PLC (BP), relies on the Grangemouth refinery for power and steam and can't operate without a high level of either source. Ineos spokesman Richard Longden said the company would begin restoring operations at the Grangemouth refinery by Tuesday morning, when the two-day strike ends, but said it would still take two to three weeks to fully restore operations at the Forties pipeline. Union workers are expected to go back to work after the strike ends Tuesday but could walk-off the job a week later if the two sides still have no agreement. In Nigeria, Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (XOM) local affiliate and the oil workers' union, Pengassan, remained at a standoff over pay. The dispute, which the Nigerian government is trying to mediate, forced Exxon to shut around 800,000 barrels a day of production Friday. Although it could be more, the total amount of crude production out of service in Nigeria is estimated by Dow Jones Newswires at about 58%, or 1.44 million barrels a day, of the country's effective pumping capacity of 2.5 million barrels a day. -By Spencer Swartz, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9357; spencer.swartz@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires

To: koan who wrote (78417)	4/27/2008 5:25:56 PM
From: Just_Observing	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

"I agree mercury is a huge problem" Here are some estimates of this problem: "As many as 600,000 babies may be born in the USA each year with irreversible brain damage because pregnant mothers ate mercury-contaminated fish, the Environmental Protection Agency says. Medical researchers are just beginning to explore such mercury exposure in adults, which can leave some people struggling through life in a disorienting "fish fog." Nationwide, more than 8,000 lakes, rivers and bays are compromised by mercury's toxic effects." "EPA officials say that deep, rapid cuts in mercury emissions are unwarranted and too costly to the power industry and would produce nominal health benefits, because, in their view, most of the mercury deposited in U.S. lakes and streams comes from abroad." I wonder if we can even think of assigning a cost to this level of damage. It has to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. At $100 billion a year, it works out to be $166,667 per baby and no cost for each "fish-fogged" adult. Would you accept $166,667 as settlement for brain damage for you baby? No, I didn't think so. So the cost has to be in the trillions of dollars every year. More bad news - there is more coming from China to the US as winds generated by the earth's rotation carry it from the west to east. "Mercury and other pollutants from China's more than 2,000 coal-fired power plants soar high into the atmosphere and around the globe on what has become a transcontinental conveyor belt of bad air." More news on Mercury today Olympic National Park to warn anglers of mercury levels in fish By Brian Gawley, Peninsula Daily News Sunday, April 27, 2008 OLYMPIC NATIONAL PARK — "Park officials will find a way to notify anglers that elevated mercury levels were found in some fish from the isolated PJ and Hoh lakes, said a park spokeswoman. Mercury concentrations in some fish in the Olympic National Park lakes were among the highest measured in a six-year study of 20 national parks and monuments released by the National Park Service last week. The amount exceeded the 185 parts per billion standard that triggers warnings for people." "Pollution in pristine areas The study was funded primarily by the National Park Service to evaluate the potential threats to park ecosystems and likely sources of these contaminants. The study found evidence of 70 contaminants, including heavy metals and pesticides, of parks ranging from Denali in Alaska to Big Bend in Texas. The study by the Western Airborne Contaminants Assessment Project was released Tuesday. The findings show that even the most pristine wilderness areas are within reach of toxic byproducts of industry. Because the locations are rarely visited by people, the prime source of the pollution is from the air." Maybe, Gore can win a repeat Noble Prize for Mercury Poisoning of the Planet. I have a ready-made Powerpoint Presentation to use with his other one. All the melting ice is also probably increasing the mercury in our water. usatoday.com peninsuladailynews.com