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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (99884)	4/27/2008 3:07:42 PM
From: tradingfaster123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206131

good points, Ed. Especially the one about having to wait a few months to really see where supply/demand stands ex-weather. it seems that in the past, May has been a very good month for seeing this since there are few HDDs or CDDs. Last year, with the high LNG imports, there were three 100+ builds in May, so whether we get more or less than that could be a good comparison point. re robry and his baseline, i tend not to look at any of his data other than the actual storage withdrawals/builds. ive thoroughly compared his demand and supply data for various segments such as industrial demand, U.S. production, etc. and it has been way off from the EIA. I mean correlation in the 50 percentile or something low like that, I can't remember exactly. However, his generation demand figures match up well with the EIA, over 90 percentile. Not the exact nominal figures, but the movement over time % wise. I checked all that sometime toward the end of last year when I was trading NG stocks a lot, havent done anything recently, so maybe he got more accurate (but just looking over it really quick just now I see he has U.S. production 6-8bcfpd over last year in recent months; I think we can agree thats probably way too high). on the rig count front. i thought there was a strong correlation with that and production, but then all the data i see points to canadian imports higher than last year. this with canadian rig count being way down yoy last year, remember? so if materially lower canadian rig count failed to bring down canadian imports, i dont see why a much smaller drop percentage wise in the U.S. would do much. because lower rig count doesnt really tell the whole story when the productivity of rigs are greatly increasing through new tech. intuitively im thinking, E&P's are making a killing. not just on their existing production, but there are huge returns on buying and exploiting new properties. there is an all-out land grab going on. in fact i think i remember last year, none of the E&Ps with the exception of ECA cut back even with the low NG prices. what really are the indications that NG is becoming scarce in the U.S.? I dont see any. good point on the LNG. i remember last year a lot of people, myself included, were surprised w/w LNG prices collapsed so dramatically. in october of 2006 UK prices were $12-14 and then by april they printed under $5. they did have a warm winter, but the main culprit seemed to be lack of storage capacity. now it's less about storage and more about an actual supply/demand imbalance. to put it another way, probably very little is even making it into storage at all. whether that changes through improved weather conditions in spain, etc. who knows.