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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (119113)	4/28/2008 11:22:47 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 306849

>>>Huge potential as Berlin property goes nowhere<<< Funy you mention Germany. I went to an AEI conference this afternoon. Nothing too shocking. Desmond Lochman swears the world will end. Roubini was not there. What was interesting is that there is a potential Bear Stearns budding over there. It was a comment one of the panelists made in passing. The video isn't yet available. I am not able to say any more through my own ignorance. Something to watch. One other note: Those guys keep throwing up charts of loan default rates. The thing they like to point out is that default rates were way, way below normal in '05-'06. They are now headed back to normal. Will they overshoot to the upside??? What are the consequences of normal default rates for "normal loans" applied upon all of the CDO defaults, etc??? Yet another note: Those guys are suggesting in no unsubtle fashion that commercial real estate is hading for the dumpster.