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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Katelew who wrote (62664)4/30/2008 5:57:19 PM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 544452
 
The polls are all over the place - if you want a digest of all of them, bookmark here:

realclearpolitics.com

RCP Average 04/26 - 04/28 -- 50.3 40.0 Obama +10.3

SurveyUSA 04/26 - 04/28 727 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 04/28 - 04/28 774 LV 51 37 Obama +14.0
PPP (D) 04/26 - 04/27 1121 LV 51 39 Obama +12.0


realclearpolitics.com

RCP Average 04/20 - 04/28 -- 46.4 44.2 Clinton +2.2

PPP (D) 04/27 - 04/28 1347 LV 50 42 Clinton +8.0
SurveyUSA 04/25 - 04/27 628 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0
Howey-Gauge 04/23 - 04/24 600 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0
Research 2000 04/23 - 04/24 400 LV 47 48 Obama +1.0
Indy Star/Selzer 04/20 - 04/23 535 LV 38 41 Obama +3.0


Relying on individual outlier polls can be deceiving.



To: Katelew who wrote (62664)4/30/2008 7:36:54 PM
From: JohnM  Respond to of 544452
 
These numbers are different from polled numbers in these same states a few weeks ago.

Kate, I was just about to type something about variability across polls and the problems thereto, but I see Dale has already done that.

Having said that, my guess is that RealClear probably would show a decline in Obama's NC margin but I think the Indiana margin is staying constant. Just a guess. I may take a look once I catch up on the thread.