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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44770)	5/1/2008 3:39:52 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69274

Market Scan Not Technically A Recession, But... Carl Gutierrez, 04.30.08, 9:25 AM ET Related Stories Tale of Two Economies The GDP's Shaky Facade GDP's Health Misleading Credit Crisis Hits Home Credit Crisis Hits Home Most Popular Stories Young Billionaires Easily Overlooked Tax Deductions The No-Tech Hacker Job Hunting In A Downturn How To Tap Lenders When Credit Is Tight The United States is technically not in a recession, but economic activity is still very slow. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department announced that the gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the first quarter, the same rate reported in the fourth quarter of 2007. According to a poll by Thomson/IFR, analysts on average had expected the government to report growth of only 0.3%. GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States. Wednesday's figure is the first of three estimates of the quarterly GDP figure issued by the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, but at this point the distinction would only be symbolic. Although the first-quarter figure indicates growth, economists at Lehman Brothers and Global Insight said that the increase would be caused by a buildup in inventories. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 3.80%, from 3.85% late Thursday. The markets are broadly anticipating that the Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate, as well as the discount rate, by 25 basis points later this afternoon, and there is little reason to think Wednesday's GDP figure will change that. Before the government released its figure on the health of the economy, the Mortgage Bankers Association gave its bleak report on mortgage applications. Mortgage application volume fell 11.1% during the week ending April 25, according to the MBA's weekly application survey. The MBA's application index fell to 567, from 637.6 the previous week. An index value of 100 is equal to the application volume on March 16, 1990, the first week the MBA tracked application volumes. A reading of 567 means mortgage application activity is 5.67 times higher than it was when the MBA began tracking the data. Refinancing volume fell 16.7%, while purchase application volume decreased 4.8% during the week. Refinance applications accounted for 45.7% of total application volume. The survey provides a snapshot of mortgage lending activity among mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. It covers about half of all residential retail mortgage originations each week. The index peaked at 1,856.7 during the week ending May 30, 2003, at the height of the housing boom. What makes the drop in volume especially unsettling is that it came despite a drop in interest rates. The average interest rate for standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.01% during the week ending April 25, from 6.04% the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often a popular option for refinancing a loan, fell to 5.53%, from 5.60%. The average rate for one-year adjustable-rate mortgages declined to 6.86%, from 6.93%. --The Associated Press contributed to this article

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44770)	5/1/2008 7:02:44 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 69274

Hi Harry: $850 was the old high and granted we blew through it earlier this year on speculation but it should hold as support. Problem with many of the gold juniors will be lack of funding even if they find gold, which many are. Its a crap shoot to speculate on a 20 cent stock and it either goes bust (not finding any economic gold) or goes up 10 to 20 fold (if it does)..

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (44770)	5/1/2008 11:55:36 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69274

Exxon Mobil 1Q profit up 17 pct, Wall Street expected more Thursday May 1, 10:46 am ET By John Porretto, AP Business Writer Lifted by record crude prices, Exxon Mobil 1Q profit rises 17 pct but disappoints Wall Street HOUSTON (AP) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, said Thursday record crude prices helped its first-quarter profit climb 17 percent to $10.9 billion -- the second biggest U.S. quarterly corporate profit ever. ADVERTISEMENT But the results still fell short of Wall Street's lofty forecasts, and its shares fell more than 4 percent in morning trading. The company's refining operations limited the company's overall earnings growth because crude prices for crude oil rose even faster than the rise in prices that drivers see at the gasoline pump. Lower production to start the year hurt too. Exxon Mobil, based in Irving, Texas, said earnings for the first three months of the year rose to the equivalent of $2.03 per share, up from $9.3 billion, or $1.62 per share, a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were looking for a larger profit of $2.13 per share. But even at $10.9 billion, the profit ranks as the second biggest for a U.S. company -- the only bigger result in a three-month period was the $11.7 billion Exxon Mobil posted in the final three months of 2007. Revenue rose to $116.8 billion from $87.2 billion a year earlier. Analysts were looking for higher revenue of about $124 billion. Exxon Mobil shares fell $3.95, or 4.2 percent, to $89.11 in morning trading. The company said earnings at its exploration and production, or upstream, business rose 45 percent to $8.8 billion, lifted by higher oil and natural gas prices. Increased natural gas production was more than offset by lower crude volumes. Overall production fell 5.6 percent from a year ago, in part from natural field declines and maintenance. On the refining and marketing side, earnings were off 39 percent from a year ago to nearly $1.2 billion. The company said significantly lower worldwide refining margins reduced earnings by about $1 billion in the quarter. Those margins reflect the difference between the cost of crude and what the company makes on refined products such as gasoline. Crude prices averaged nearly $100 a barrel in the first quarter, up from roughly $58 a barrel a year ago. Analysts have attributed the spike to growing global demand, speculative trading and a weak dollar, among other factors. Crude has pushed even higher since, reaching a record $119.93 per barrel this week. Meanwhile, gasoline prices also are reaching new highs -- and creating financial stress for many Americans. The national average price of a gallon of regular gas rose past $3.60 Wednesday. Already, record crude prices have produced bountiful first-quarter profits for several of the other major oil companies, despite higher costs and lower results from refining. BP PLC and Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Europe's two biggest oil producers, posted combined profits of $17 billion earlier this week -- $9.08 billion for Shell, $7.6 billion for BP. BP's earnings surged 63 percent from a year ago; Shell's rose 25 percent. Last week, ConocoPhillips reported a 16 percent rise in net income to $4.14 billion. Like BP and Shell, the third biggest U.S. oil outfit far outpaced industry expectations. Chevron Corp., the No. 2 U.S. oil company, is expected to continue the trend. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results Friday. [Harry: As far as I can tell the refiners has hedged the price of oil through options or forward sold their production and not taken accoount of the higher than expected rise in the price of oil, otherwise the margins should be stable as they should be able to pass the price increase on to their customers.]