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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Reidy who wrote (6733)	5/1/2008 9:59:43 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71445

All I will say is by crash hard I mean back to perhaps $80-90 as speculators sent it way beyond today's intrinsic value and are already discounting 3 years of double digit inflation and the dollar continuing to plunge from here along with a GWB third term.. $120 kills so many vital businesses and sends unemployment sky high it ain't even funny and this will lead to serious recession if it stays that high for a prolonged period. For sure the pass through of oil, steel and other commodities is a big part of the attempt to inflate out of this mess helping property and other necessary hard assets in the process down the road but won't stem the foreclosue wave near term. Positive real GDP and low unemployment would. Also factor in the RE bust is not in the early innings anymore. We are well into the later stages of the price drops in many areas of this country but the media will freak out when their beloved Manhattan and Beverly Hills have a major leg down here. We are down a stunning 65-70% already in some of the ground zero markets in FL and CA in under thre years. The biggest bubbles are RE overseas and our bond market IMHO.. I wil bet that Bernake fears oil going parabolic or long term rates rising in a major way much more than the 'deflation monster' these days.. He needs a slow orderly move over a prolonged period of time..