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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (78594)	5/2/2008 6:23:37 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Respond to of 116555

"As usual they want to have it both ways" Unfortunately, they always have it both ways. That is what socialization of risk and negative interest rates do.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (78594)	5/2/2008 9:27:52 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 116555

Export/Import industries are not based on the daily fluctuation of the dollar. The dollar has been massively depreciated and will continue to depreciate until the current account deficit is 0. Exports will go up, as they must, but by definition a rebalancing from imbalance means that readjustment in the other 80% of the economy will be more severe. It is probably undervalued against some currencies, but surely overvalued versus most of the Asian currencies. The continued readjustment of the current account will play havoc with leveraged assets. The first stage of the bear market is always a technical move that nobody can figure out. YoY ex-financials earnings growth was something like 10%, what's not to like say the pundits??? The second stage is the realization that the fundamentals have changed. That is coming - soon no doubt...