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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Warrants Only -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onepath who wrote (4060)	5/2/2008 5:51:42 AM
From: PaperPerson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23102

OnePath, I have been seeing many signs of capitulation here on the SI boards and from my PM stock buddy in town. (This time is different, selling everything to raise cash, etc.) Acting like it is the end of the world and we better sell everything before it goes up :) I think there is a good chance of a summer rally in gold that will push the producers much higher. (Like Yamana from $13 to $22, is what I am wishfully thinking). The bottom could be in right here at $852 spot, or following one more barf-day, especially considering the shape the world's currencies and financials are in. We had the huge runup to 1,000 from 650 starting last August, we have had a suitably sharp correction within a continuing bull market for tangibles, and I think the next up-swing in gold, silver, palladium and platinum is going to take our breath away. I am less confident that this rally, if indeed it occurs in PM stocks, would reach into the non-cash-flow specs, because of the thin markets in the summer. That rationale tips me toward AEM and writing the covered calls, SLW and its B warrants, the Yamana warrants on which I am under water; and a few very well financed specs such as Kodiak and SST, which is my baby SLW. I am also still hanging in there with GUR warrants, having averaged down so that my break even does not look silly. I like the chances of a uranium rally leading the pack of juniors upward, and GUR gives me a nice group shot led by Cameco UUU and Denison. Michael

To: onepath who wrote (4060)	5/2/2008 8:31:23 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 23102

You ask whether I think the juniors will make a summer rally. I really don't even think about it. "Stock prices will fluctuate".. I'll continue to hold 'em so long as I have faith that they are cheap and that ultimately they'll trade higher. "Sumer rally" suggests market timing, which doesn't work for me.... just diversification. Mind, as a sector, mining exploration has historically been a losing sector with many issues failing to survive. I have often thought that if there is any sector that should be played from the short side, it is this one.... But not my stocks... lol. I'm still short NGD as explained, and enjoying the novel experience. I should do more "pairs trading". Warrants and their common stock make likely candidates. Gold and Silver are another pair if one has a preference there. Rambling on.... Maybe another "pair" for me would be "cash and stocks", where I short the former (AKA "borrow") to buy the latter ! Regards.