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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (6762)	5/2/2008 11:13:28 AM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71410

The depegging impact is central to the Peter Schiff scenario -- like yourself, I too believe that the risk of this is very high and getting moreso every day, subject to the vagaries described later in this post If you follow the mechanics of a ME depegging scenario through, the current commodities correction as expressed in USD will be nothing more than a sawtooth on a parabolic rise upward Having said that, you don't have to be Einstein to realize that more is going on here under the surface than simple economics, i.e. there are Machiavellian geopolitical factors at play which are in conflict with economic logic, at least in the short term. For example, western-friendly ME interests may view e.g. that regional military security trumps maximizing the short term value on their national holdings -- IOW, they knowingly are accepting a future haircut on their USD oil revenues as part of an overall structural arrangement that suits their own self-interest, similar to how the Asians have borne USD losses to run their vendor-financing schemes peddling consumables to the USA As such, it's very difficult if not impossible to predict when the situation will shift to where economic logic will instead trump these other factors that have so far avoided seeing the dollar completely abandoned. Gold certainly isn't behaving lately as if any major policy shift is imminent, so we may be waiting on that event for longer than some people expect