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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (6789)	5/2/2008 10:01:23 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71442

John Williams is not God. However, he is doing some honest analysis of the government reports, trying to revert those back to the way they were prior to multiple CPI methods revisions that are known to drastically understate CPI. He also publishes reconstruction of money supply M3, which agrees with Bart's M3 (Bart's M3 is more short-term and up to date). He may be wrong, and I suspect he may overstate inflation a bit, but he is all we have, besides the government, of course -g- My suspicion is not based on facts - rather, it is hard to believe that most of the so-called "growth" during Greenspan era was all due to inflation. However, I definitely feel salaries in real terms dropped enormously from the early 90-s or even early 2000-s Here is a simple math effect of geometric averaging used to understate inflation, which I demonstrate here: Message 24504883 CPI is a geometrically averaged index, as you can read on the BLS site. Use your calculator -g-

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (6789)	5/2/2008 10:41:46 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71442

You should read this, it's the truth. His effort maybe incomplete and subject to errors. I'm not sure how he does it - seems like a lot of work. shadowstats.com shadowstats.com shadowstats.com shadowstats.com shadowstats.com Treasury GAAP statement is here. Most is SS and Medicare future liabilities - see p. 12-13 (46-47) for enormous GAAP deficits John Williams is talking about, mostly present value of future SS and medicare liabilities, see fms.treas.gov Increases in "total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue". Pretty trashy - 40 Trillion here and there... Total deficit is more than 55 Trillion due to increased current value of future liabilities. This stuff is something GM had to do to get it's book value negative -g-