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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (21441)	5/3/2008 9:51:55 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36917

>>Wharfie, you said oil peaked in 2005. It didn't. It increased after that. You were wrong.<< Mq, When you strip out natural gas liquids, global oil production has been level since 2005. Looks like they'll squeeze out a few more barrels yet in the next few years, but I think we're basically at plateau oil. So does NZ produce much in the way of oil and gas? Oil prices to double by 2012: Canadian study news.yahoo.com Thu Apr 24, 3:04 PM ET The price of oil is likely to hit 150 dollars (Canadian, US) a barrel by 2010 and soar to 225 dollars a barrel by 2012 as supply becomes increasingly tight, a Canadian bank said Thursday. The CIBC report says the International Energy Agency's current oil production estimates overstate supply by about nine percent, since it wrongly counts natural gas liquids -- which are not viable for transportation fuel -- in its numbers. ( CIBC Report: research.cibcwm.com ) Analyst Jeff Rubin in his report noted accelerating depletion rates in many of the world's largest and most mature oil fields. He estimates oil production will hardly grow at all, with average daily production between now and 2012 rising by barely a million barrels per day. "Whether we have already seen the peak in world oil production remains to be seen, but it is increasingly clear that the outlook for oil supply signals a period of unprecedented scarcity," said Rubin. "Despite the recent record jump in oil prices, oil prices will continue to rise steadily over the next five years, almost doubling from current levels." The CIBC report also notes that while production increases are at a virtual standstill, global demand continues to grow. An expected drop in demand in the United States due to higher prices and a weak economy will be more than offset by demand growth in developing nations, it says. Rubin cites, for example, the recent launch of Tata's 2,500-dollar car that will allow millions of households in India to soon own automobiles. He also notes that car sales last year were up 60 percent in Russia, up 30 percent in Brazil and up 20 percent in China. Transport fuel now accounts for half of the world's oil usage. Although US oil consumption is likely to fall by over two million barrels a day over the next five years as pump prices rise, he says, more drivers on the road in Russia, China and India will surely pick up the slack in demand.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (21441)	5/4/2008 2:39:06 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36917

Less is more? 2002 Net Change: -934 kb/d 2003 Net Change: +2,279 kb/d 2004 Net Change: +3,065 kb/d 2005 Net Change: 1,294 kb/d 2006 Net Change: -267 kb/d 2007 Net Change: -264 kb/d Charts are based on Energy Information Administration Crude Oil and Condensate data up to and including January 2008. The label "Other" includes Denmark, Ecuador, Columbia, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, India, Syria, Vietnam, Yemen, Egypt and everything else not individually assessed by the EIA. The 2002-2008 charts have the same total range of 1000kb/d except for 2003 (although 2004 has a different mid-point). anz.theoildrum.com == 2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 450,000 b/d from November to December. Total production in December was estimated at 74.2 million b/d, which is 96,000 b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.3 million b/d reached in May 2005 (difference due to rounding errors). europe.theoildrum.com “Data always beats theories. 'Look at data three times and then come to a conclusion,' versus 'coming to a conclusion and searching for some data.' The former will win every time.” —Matthew Simmons, ASPO-USA conference, Boston, MA, October 26, 2006 I know...too many numbers. Here's a picture i129.photobucket.com