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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (6875)	5/4/2008 11:06:35 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 71477

<< think theories are only useful to the degree they have predictive power. Turning a theory into a loyalty cult is pretty much a dead-end.>> For sure. Regards AG, i did dump my RJA at even when it is was apparent i was wrong, but unlike you, i did see 7k in paper profits go bye-bye. But i do see DBA and such in a but likely corrective pullback Wheat going into this year reached alltime low inventories. Big part of that was due to Australias severe drought. This years weather in U.S. is a major factor. 40% of Monsanto's Round-up Resistant Cotton(and all the several products that are equivalent to Round-up) is said to be in danger of being lost to destruction by weed strangulation. This problem is showing up for both round-resistant soybean and corn, as horse weed and pigweed now LOVE Round-Up(or equivalent) products.( As long as crude remains elevated there is a quite non-speculative base for inflation in Ag. The costs to farmers are rising such that it will not take much for farmers to start cutting production or go bankrupt. The loss of arable land is shrinking every year. Brazil surrenders more and more land to just to grow sugarcane(the vast sugarcane plantations now are virtual slave labor camps for the cane cutters, btw). The extraordinary political forces to keep growing food for cars is a disastrous policy, as the non-sugar cane based ethanol that the U.S. farmers grow is a manifest failure, and the only thing it seems to do well is create danger for starvation ( Nova had a first rate show on how corn and soybeans are being used to feed cows/cattle in bovine concentration camps where cattle eat soybeans and corn that they were NOT designed to eat.So they must eat much more to fatten than if it was grass, plus they are getting horrid diseases-- i myself am a failure at being vegetarian but will be looking to buy only grass grazed beef) The cessation of Ag exporters ceasing to reducing exports can lead to dire consequeces to the import dependent. Phillipines and rice being a warning. Just saying, there are real reason for concern. Note this: Last year was first time since records were kept that food production DECREASED from the previous year. i have the source of that info in another post. In sum, Ag could well generate in a inflationary trend over the long haul. There is NOTHIG simple about this. ************************************************************* i realize perhaps 95% of people reject absolutely U.S. attacking Iran. i will only say, if it happens, this dark insanity to attack Iran, takes place, the aftermath will be shocking to the complacent. We live in ultra uncertain times, imho. Max