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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (78748)	5/6/2008 3:54:48 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Yep, buy companies with little or no debt, in markets that will be less affected by the downturn........ One of the reasons commodity and ag sector has been beyond RED hot, everyone still has to eat. Also why unleveraged energy plays also, we still need energy. This has been a real mixed bag, those with clean balance sheets have been rocket rides. Energy and Commodities should stay alight until after that 2013 to 2015 date rolls around. At the bottom of the credit/debt implosion one then buys out of favor survivors and then goes short, commodity/energy/gold. It will be an awesome trade. Me also thinks companies in places like China and Brazil, those with little or no debt, solid cash on balance sheet and a solid business model will down the road prove to be the MSFT,s of tommorrow. Make sure to fish out the best ones and follow them like glue, pounce when they are being thrown on the trash heap with all the rest. China and Brazil are the new Americas at our turn of the century, think 1907. There is a reason Brazil's index hit all time highs last week.......tons of resources untapped. China has the people resource and they work 24/7 to get ahead, owning a peice of that energy in the leading companies makes good sense. China has some good stocks and some very bad stocks, determine which are the good ones and own them. If you keep a tracking list of these types of companies, no debt, solid cash, solid business - they will provide steller dip buying trades. And it is the trader, in and out, that will benefit the most until this whole crap washes out. My target is for 2013 into 2015 with the INDU trading inder 5000. The FED continues to try and inflate it all away, this credit bubble is so great, this is doomed to failure. Gold - that is the great unknown, if we truly see a deflation it will not be a great place to have your money. It is doing well at the moment due to FED printing and some success at reflation. We actually had deflation in March and April and me thinks this is why gold contracted. Cash - should perform real well in a deflation, once the credit cycle really contracts it will offer some buys of a lifetime.....so whatever you do - do not make stupid investments trying to buy overleveraged crap (housing/banking sector for instance) in timing some sort of a bottom. We are nowhere near that here and now and it will eat your cash alive! And do not forget, watch that dollar chart, does it go BK as well in the coming contraction? Me thinks not, but one must be wary of how it trades against a basket of currency and have a strategy to get out if it looks like a dead duck. Every currency has its problems......in one way or another. America is not the only nation loaded up with debt and owning a printing press. I like nations that still have solid manufacturing bases. That means at the bottom, China, Germany, Japan and resource rich nations Brazil and Russia ETFs could really provide some nice buys. Could give you a basket of names in energy, China, agriculture, commodity......but why give away 1000s of hours of hard work for free. :) There is going to be incredible opportunity ahead....protect your asset base and do not try to overgame this market. Good luck. West