Saw that. I was starting to think the end was in sight, particularly because a number of US companies reported unexpectedly large profits because of foreign sales. The US$ appeared to have fallen to a point where US exports could compete on the world market.
BUT - oil is still rising! $123/bbl. The Saudis months ago told the US to GTH. The US$ weakness was caused by us and was our problem, they said. They certainly have a point.
Given that, hang onto your euros, yen, and gold.
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CNNMoney.com
Pending home sales hit record low in March
Wednesday May 7, 10:46 am ET
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
The number of homes under contract for sale fell in March, hitting a record low for the second consecutive month, according to a report released Wednesday.
The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index fell to 83 in March, down 1% from a downwardly revised reading of 83.8 in February. The rate of decline was in line with a consensus estimate of economists compiled by Briefing.com.
March's reading was down 20.1% from the same period last year and 35% from the index's peak in April 2005.
The trade group launched the Pending Home Sales index in 2001, and a reading of 100 is equal to results that first year.
"Clearly, a string of unimpressive housing numbers is continuing," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
The Pending Home Sales Index is considered a more forward-looking indicator of home sales than other real estate forecasts such as the NAR's more closely watched existing home sales report. Unlike existing home sales estimates, pending home sales are measured before the time of closing, typically a month or two before a sales contract is signed.
"A significant chunk of these pending sales won't turn into closed sales," noted Larson, who said lenders' tightening of their prime loan standards and the unavailability of subprime loans have made home financing difficult.
Future looks brighter
The Realtors issued a slightly improved forecast for existing home sales, projecting first-quarter sales to decline 14.4% from the same period last year. In April, the group had forecast a 14.5% drop. NAR maintained its previous prediction for a total 4.7% drop in existing home sales in 2008.
"As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half," NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
Sales by homeowners have continued to drop despite plummeting home prices, which have tumbled 12.8% since median prices reached a record in July 2006.
Existing home sales for March will be released May 23.
New home sales may take a bit longer to make up lost ground than sales by homeowners. The Realtors gave a bleaker forecast for second-quarter new home sales, saying it expects a 39.2% decline, versus a previous forecast of a 32.7% drop. But NAR now estimates a much larger rise in new home sales in 2009, rising 10.1% instead of the previous forecast for 4.6% growth.
"If there is a bright spot out there, we're starting to see [housing] inventories in some markets declining," said Larson. "Homes that are priced right are moving, which is the first step towards recovery."
The NAR upwardly revised its forecasts for second-quarter and full-year real GDP growth, the broadest measure of the nation's economic strength. But it cut its expectations for nonfarm job growth in the second quarter and all of 2008.
biz.yahoo.com
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CNBC
Winter Natural Gas Crunch Possible?
Wednesday May 7, 11:19 am ET
U.S. natural gas inventories could be at seriously low levels at the start of winter this year, if current rates of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports remain at record lows, a Goldman Sachs report said Wednesday.
The year is already two months into the summer re-fill season when producers traditionally stock up on cheap gas volumes to sell on more profitably in winter, but so far storage facilities have gone unused as prices remain high.
More so, ongoing weakness in US natural gas prices compared with prices in the rest of the world is providing no incentive for LNG cargoes to be directed to the US, leaving imports at record-low levels.
"The US still needs to increase LNG imports and incentivize some fuel switching away from natural gas towards residual fuel oil to bring nat gas inventories to full levels by end of October," the report said.
To achieve higher imports the bank says Nymex natural gas futures futures, currently trading at 28-month highs of more than $11.10 per million British thermal units, will need to rise further to close the gap with international gas prices and the rest of the oil complex in coming months.
If prices fail to rise, it will be hard for U.S. natural gas inventories to reach full levels by the end of the summer, the report said. And U.S. supply could come under pressure if this winter is as severe as 2007, the coldest in 7 years.
Goldman raised its US domestic production outlook for the year by 300 million cubic feet per day, but adds any increase will be offset by an increase in expected U.S. pipeline exports, keeping the supply balance tight.
biz.yahoo.com
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'The Worst Is Behind Us': Paulson Joins Street Luminaries, Declares Victory
Posted May 07, 2008 11:28am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
Related: UBS, FNM, LM, LAZ, MER, CFC, BSC
With Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Merrill's John Thain chiming in, there's now near unanimity of opinion on Wall Street: The worst of the credit crisis is over.
Such comments seem outrageous given the latest batch of scary headlines from UBS, Fannie Mae, Legg Mason, Lazard, et al. But hope springs eternal on Wall Street, and the reality is the crisis in the debt markets has eased since JPMorgan's Fed-engineered purchase of Bear Stearns, which Paulson called "an inflection point." (Critics have used similar terms, but with a far different meaning.)
Meanwhile, even Henry "Mr. Sunshine" Blodget is starting to come around to the idea that the housing market may be hitting bottom, thanks to an op-ed by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, managing partner of Traxis Partners, in The Wall Street Journal.
In making the case for a housing-market bottom, Moulle-Berteaux notes house price affordability has improved dramatically and the inventory of new homes is falling. (The piece appeared prior to Wednesday's weak report on pending sales of existing homes for March.)
The fund manager makes a compelling case, but omits the key element of financing. While demand for housing remains fairly stable and mortgage rates are still historically low, even buyers with high credit scores and large down payments are reportedly struggling to secure as lenders like Countrywide and WaMu grapple with the bubble's aftermath.
finance.yahoo.com
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I think Paulson flunked his drug test. |
