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To: koan who wrote (113663)	5/7/2008 2:12:14 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313641

Inflation explained: "Hubbert has had serious health problems for several years. Both his eyesight and hearing now give him problems. But neither the ailments nor the recent adulation have eroded his zest for intellectual combat. In recent years, he has assaulted a target--which he labels the culture of money--that is gigantic even by Hubbert standards. His thesis is that society is seriously handicapped because its two most important intellectual underpinnings, the science of matter-energy and the historic system of finance, are incompatible. A reasonable co-existence is possible when both are growing at approximately the same rate. That, Hubbert says, has been happening since the start of the industrial revolution but it is soon going to end because the amount of that the matter-energy system can grow is limited while money's growth is not. "'I was in New York in the 30s. I had a box seat at the depression,' Hubbert says. 'I can assure you it was a very educational experience. We shut the country down because of monetary reasons. We had manpower and abundant raw materials. Yet we shut the country down. We're doing the same kind of thing now but with a different material outlook. We are not in the position we were in 1929-30 with regard to the future. Then the physical system was ready to roll. This time it's not. We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It's unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can't possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once. Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered.' ************************************

To: koan who wrote (113663)	5/7/2008 2:42:08 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313641

by Richard C. Duncan Abstract The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years: circa 1930-2030. Energy production per capita (e) defines it. The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970 (Postulate 1 is verified). Average e will show no growth from 1979 through circa 2008 (Postulate 2 is confirmed from 1979 through 2003). The rate of change of e will go steeply negative circa 2008 (Postulate 3). World population will decline to about two billion circa 2050 (Postulate 4). A growing number of independent studies concur (see text). Introduction The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years: circa 1930-2030. It is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population (e). Four postulates follow: 1. The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970. 2. Average e will show no growth from 1979 to circa 2008. 3. The rate of change of e will go steeply negative circa 2008. 4. World population will decline proximate with e. This paper accomplishes four goals: The first goal is to show that from 1893 through 1949 three distinguished scholars formulated a comprehensive Olduvai scenario. The second goal is threefold: 1) electrical power is crucial end-use energy for industrial civilization;1 2) the big blackouts are inevitable; and 3) the proximate cause of the collapse of industrial civilization, if and when it occurs, will be that the electric power grids go down and never come back up. I first presented the Olduvai Theory at an engineering conference entitled, "Science, Technology, and Society" (Duncan, 1989). My paper was well received and a lengthy discussion followed — even though I had no data to support it at the time. A few years later I had gathered eight (8) historical data points to backup the theory (Duncan, 1993). Three years after that I showed that it held up against the world energy and population data from 1950 to 1995 (Duncan, 1996). Next tested in 2000, the theory was supported by data from 1920 to 1999 (Duncan, 2000, 2001). The third goal of this paper is to extend this series of tests by using data from 1850 through 2003. The fourth goal is twofold: 1) detail and describe the Olduvai Theory from 1930 to 2030, and 2) document that a growing number of studies concur with Postulate 4. Three Scouts There is no comprehensive substitute for oil in its high-energy density, ease of handling, myriad end-uses, and in the volumes in which we now use it. The peak of world oil production and then its irreversible decline will be a turning point in Earth history with worldwide impact beyond anything previously seen. And that event will surely occur within the lifetimes of most people living today. (Youngquist, 2004)