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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: re3 who wrote (113678)	5/7/2008 11:57:53 AM
From: E. Charters	Respond to of 313570

Try buying and waiting. Optimal strategies can be developed in spite of the lack of absolute knowledge of the eventual state of the market. Follow the trend, sell or buy accordingly to individual differentiation and market sector. If you look at oil, iron, copper, fertilizer, PGMS you will see differentiation. Some metals, like PGMs do not have good record of production outside limited locales so time to feasibility is a big question mark which tends to depress the price of explorers. Some are arguing guru like that PM's will come back. I am more sanguine. I like, child-like to rid the trend that is there inarguably. I think gold has always followed oil so it has some hope. I am fearful of its actions to a degree. At 850 it still supports production in Canada. On that I have to say that there is no really good reason why it should fail catastrophically. The M1 is still way too big and the dollar flight alternatives still not there in any major way to depress the price substantially. There still may be a gold pull back to even 725. But I think long term it will support above there. That would be about 500 dollars in 1997 dollars. 500 to 600 is Gold's historical 1997 constant dollar support level for 500 years, so that constant dollar price corresponding to 700 to 800 in today's dollars is its long term support level. Gold is here because of inflation and I don't see widespread deflation happening just yet. (Barring the housing market in the US.) EC<:-}