Good stuff on the numbers if FL/MI were counted as Hillary would like:
First Read: The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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FIRST THOUGHTS.
*** The Game-Changer: In a way, Clinton turned out to be prescient when she said that the North Carolina and Indiana contests would be a game-changer in the race for the Democratic nomination. What changed, however, was the story that Obama -- even though leading by every metric -- was on the defensive after losing Pennsylvania and after weeks of Jeremiah Wright and "bitter." But in winning North Carolina last night, his margin of victory (more than 230,000) was even larger than the amount that Clinton won Pennsylvania by (about 215,000). In fact, when you combine Clinton's narrow victory in Indiana and Obama's much larger one in the Tar Heel State, he ALMOST netted more votes than Clinton obtained from Pennsylvania. In short, we're right back to where we were on April 21, and that's something that won't be lost among Democratic superdelegates, especially after two weeks dominated by Wright.
*** The New Math: Another thing that last night did was kill the Clinton's campaign's two best talking points. First, the popular vote: After last night, Obama now leads Clinton by more than 700,000 (16,050,924 vs. 15,336,896). When you include Florida, Obama leads by 419,256, and when you include both Florida and Michigan (and don't give Obama "uncommitted"), his lead is 90,947. And here's what's left in our pop vote simulator
Total votes Clinton Obama Split
WV: 400,000 240,000 160,000 60-40
KY: 500,000 300,000 200,000 60-40
OR: 600,000 270,000 330,000 45-55
SD: 100,000 45,000 55,000 45-55
MT: 125,000 56,250 68,750 45-55
Totals 911,250 813,750
Under this scenario, Clinton will net 97,500 in the remaining contests. So Clinton can win the popular vote if you count Florida and Michigan, but it'll be close and it's just as likely with a bigger than expected win for Obama in Oregon that he can actually win the popular vote even with netting ZERO votes out of Michigan. This shows just how massive both turnout was in North Carolina and the margin of Obama's victory was in the state. Once again, he shows that when he wins a state, he wins big.
*** Mission Impossible? Second, on the delegate front, if Florida and Michigan were seated as is and Obama got the uncommitted delegates in Michigan, Clinton would net an additional 32 delegates from Florida and 18 from Michigan -- for a total net of 50. So add those numbers into the current pledged delegate count and Obama still would lead in the pledged delegate count by more than 100, approximately 110 in fact. So let's use 110 as the baseline. For Clinton to overtake him in the pledged delegate lead using THEIR math on Florida and Michigan, she'd need to win 75% of all remaining delegates. That's an impossible task. Most importantly, knowing the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee the way we THINK we do, the likelihood of the committee NOT punishing Florida and Michigan in some way (say a cut in half of their delegates a la the Republicans) would then make this FL/MI exercise moot.
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