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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (78895)	5/8/2008 3:08:00 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

You sound like an ole' republican. The fiscally conservative ones.

To: mishedlo who wrote (78895)	5/8/2008 12:28:57 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Trichet Sees `Rather Protracted' High Inflation (Update2) bloomberg.com May 8 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said inflation will remain ``high'' for some time, signaling that the bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as economic growth slows. ``Inflation rates have risen significantly since autumn,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Athens today after the ECB kept its key rate at 4 percent. ``As we have said, inflation rates are expected to remain high for a rather protracted period of time before gradually declining again.'' The ECB is reluctant to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting borrowing costs as soaring food and energy prices drive inflation above 3 percent in the 15-nation euro region. The International Monetary Fund estimates economic expansion will weaken to 1.4 percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2007 after the U.S. housing slump pushed up the cost of credit worldwide.

To: mishedlo who wrote (78895)	5/8/2008 3:47:39 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

To: Vi who wrote (7091) 5/8/2008 3:46:10 PM From: LongIslandGuy of 7100 Actually the Eurocurve appears to be at the beginning stages of pricing in rate cuts in Europe. I predict that ECB will begin to cut by the end of the year if not earlier. Fed Funds will be below 1% by the end of 2009. Decoupling is a myth and will be shattered when non-residential CAPEX spending begins to adjust. That process began Q12008, I believe. The dollar needs to continue to adjust until the current account deficit goes to positive. If you notice all the problems with deleveraging and volatility began when the current account deficit began to revert from -7%. We're still at -5% so we're 2/7 of the way through <g>. I don't think the Euro/USD is a good trade though because Europe has problems too - just not as many as us - and that may have been priced in already.

To: mishedlo who wrote (78895)	5/8/2008 7:51:06 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

A municipality has gone bankrupt. What does this do to the municipal bond market - the supposedly good half of Ambac and other bond insurers? What does this do to Ambac? And what will Ambac do to the stock market? This is what I've been waiting for. The bond insurance business will not truly blow up until we start seeing more actual bankruptcies, both corporate and municipal, which of course we will, going into a recession. Same thing for credit default swaps. Only when there are some actual defaults will the shit hit the fan. Fun-da-Mental