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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (7091)	5/8/2008 10:49:31 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

But what if the bond market cracks in a rising rate environment? It is much bigger than the equity market<g>

To: Real Man who wrote (7091)	5/8/2008 3:46:10 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Actually the Eurocurve appears to be at the beginning stages of pricing in rate cuts in Europe. I predict that ECB will begin to cut by the end of the year if not earlier. Fed Funds will be below 1% by the end of 2009. Decoupling is a myth and will be shattered when non-residential CAPEX spending begins to adjust. That process began Q12008, I believe. The dollar needs to continue to adjust until the current account deficit goes to positive. If you notice all the problems with deleveraging and volatility began when the current account deficit began to revert from -7%. We're still at -5% so we're 2/7 of the way through <g>. I don't think the Euro/USD is a good trade though because Europe has problems too - just not as many as us - and that may have been priced in already.