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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (9368)	5/8/2008 6:45:16 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John, when you consider waves can sub-divide (see Nasdaq 1999), it really is a better bet to just follow the parabolic arc and wait for it to flatten out when you have an issue like the WTIC. One thing you may find helpful is the ADX-14 on the daily WTIC chart. Peaks in price have occured when the -d line drops between the 5 and 10 range on that indicator. Typically we've seen re-tests of the highs shortly afterwards with the same indicator testing the 10 area, making a negative divergence on that indicator. I think this could be a useful method for watching for pivot high in the daily chart. Oh, there is also a "mirror" pattern on the weekly RSI-14 that suggests it will reach the 82 area, which is another thing to watch on the WTIC. The WTIC and Natural Gas appear to be running hand in hand. The Natural Gas continuous contract peak at around $15.52 in Dec. 2005 may be a good place to use as a proxy for a high in the WTIC as well. If Natgas gets above that, it could run to $20 pretty easily. The monthly tells the story on that chart real well.

To: John Pitera who wrote (9368)	5/9/2008 12:07:24 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John, I would prefer that crude is in a vth and final move here (for this run), as is the CRB/CCI. One could argue a bit where I suppose, but I prefer much closer to the end than the beginning. In a case such as we are in I would also suspect early truncation at the top, and an incomplete finish. I do not follow crude that much, follow the $DJUSEN. $DJUSEN: Started 5th wave in early Oct of '06. Started 3rd of 5th about March of '07. Started 5th of 5th about Feb of '08, topping now?? One wave of any 5 wave series must extend (my rule). The 5th wave in the DJUSEN extended. The 3rd wave within the 5th extended and maybe the 5th within the 5th as well. If this analysis is correct I think the DJUSEN should retreat back to the 400 area, in the next correction. Prechter did an interesting paper on peak oil many months ago. As I recall he has crude in a 5th and final wave, in the real LT sense, this whole move probably being a 3rd. He also showed that in terms of real money (gold) crude is falling behind, really. I dunno. I would rather think it more likely that in a LT sense crude has made a major major BO here. A retrenchment is inevitable, but following that the next move could really take it up to the moon. The pain to consumers is pretty hefty here. Wait till the next run peaks, some years down the road. The pain will be unbearable. TF