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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sammaster who wrote (100697)	5/9/2008 10:38:31 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206084

The lower left quadrant says the glut has been largely worked off. Now folks just have to digest that and adjust for the slowdown in consumption vis-a-vis refinery run rates. I believe we are closer to a bottom than a top and increased my refinery exposure today on both VLO and TSO after lunch and also increased my DUG position via stock and June options. For the first time in a few weeks I feel pretty good about this position based on how stocks acted today despite a $2 rise in oil. The breadth is narrowing quickly and the divergence is increasing IMO. media.corporate-ir.net finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

To: sammaster who wrote (100697)	5/10/2008 3:52:01 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206084

Some refineries will be able to change their product mix to favor diesel over gasoline more significantly at their next scheduled (annual) shut-down and rebuild. Those changes which which can be made without shut-down have already been made to expand diesel output. Most refineries will require significant upgrades to be able to shift their product mix. This will take several years, or longer, to complete. Marathon is one lagging refiner which has announced a plan to bring upgrades favoring diesel on-stream by 2011. At some point over the next few years the balance between the diesel fraction and gasoline will once again be in balance. Most refiners, like Chevron, have very good estimates of when this will occur and how much capacity will need to be changed. This is based on knowing everyone's refining capabilities and intelligence on who is making what changes. I don't know this information and couldn't tell you if I did. Until balance is restored, gasoline consumers will continue to enjoy a bargain - although they will surely not recognize it as such. This news story will elaborate. marketwatch.com .