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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onepath who wrote (59449)	5/10/2008 1:35:40 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78403

ngd.to - got it on file, yes good eh - jenningscapital.com One thing you have to wonder about, is its 126m valuation of el Morro, on the very conservative low side imho - 'El Morro valuation based on contained gold and copper, using US$100/oz and US$0.05/lb for M&I Resources, and US$50/oz and US$0.025/lb for Inferred Resources.' The canadianwarrants.com page hasn't been updated yet this morning, still showing 7.70 as close for the common, '1 Month Historic Volatility' of 32.0% ... wonder what this week's candle did to that, should be a considerable lift, raising their 'Fair Market Value' back up quite a ways, a few weeks ago it was over 3.00, which would have given leverage at that point well under three times ... i figured that was unrealistic then, all things considered, and having been spoiled rotten by the loosey-goosey action of the last six months, kept hoping for another pukola out to a dollar fifty or better, but sadly, 'twas not to be A few pennies here or there are not going to make that much difference amortised over nine years and five weeks with that class of assets and management, so i nibbled since in three accounts, got over eighty per cent of planned position, fingers still crossed for some kind of a dump ... best summer play, yes it stands a good chance of being, Kootenay will be in the running as well, batches of results starting quite soon, 'next week not out of the question, the next more likely, and pretty much certainly by end of month' - paraphrase of quote from 'highly placed source' Michael makes a good point about the New York Hard Assets conference, could be like PDAC some years, we may see selloffs from anticipatory runups ... maybe mixed, temporary winners and losers both, from the effect ... won't matter much to the long picture, just interesting in the here and now Cash - got none whatsoever, lol ... almost dipped into margin one morning, probably thursday, then thought wait a minute, this has been an unusual spring and you just never know ... holding a couple of oilsands plays that have done well, crude coming into a top here imho, likely will use cash from those to bargain-hunt in metals ... two of the tickers you mention there, that i don't hold now, are close to the top of my shortlist for studying-up ... missed the whole Quebec gas thing, real life was extremely busy at the start, and then they'd run way up Suncor splitting its stock again, effective monday ... i'm trying hard not to think of the returns if i'd just sat on the maximum number of shares i held in '95 or '96 ... sold a couple of interim tops quite nicely, felt like a genius, then failed too many times to get back in lower ... not only lowered gains that way, but had to pay sizable taxes on them at least two years, aargh ... there's a lot to be said for making the right picks and then ignoring short-term noise ... which is a purely intellectual observation, irrelevant since we are faced with these little buy/sell buttons in front of us at all times, and are compelled to use them ... such is life, lol

To: onepath who wrote (59449)	5/11/2008 3:17:07 PM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78403

>> "NGD.WT.A. Best summer metal play" Perhaps the honour will go to MR.wts ! My calculator predicted that if NGD increased by a dollar to $8.90, the warrants would trade at $2.19.. The 8.90 has been achieved and the warrants are trading at $2.14. Pretty close. With NGD at $8.90, the intrinsic value of MR.wts would be $4.90 because a share of MR will convert to .9 NGD, but they are trading at only $4.50, That's below their intrinsic (NGD)value. What of the immediate future ? If NGD puts on another dollar during the summer and trades at $9.90 (+11%), NGD.wt.a might trade at $2.59 (+20%). However MR.wts will have an intrinsic value of (.9*9.90 - $3.10) $5.81. That's up 29% from its present $4.50.