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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (122122)	5/11/2008 8:34:42 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

John, it is a fact that MZM is not a reliable indicator of anything you just talked about. Read anything. Read the last 1 or 2 pages of this week's Economist and they same the same thing in case you think I'm spouting an "unconventional" view. And yes, I thought the housing top would be 2002 - 2 years after the stock market crash. Unfortunately bubbles are hard to predict. With regard to equities you know as well as anybody I called the top within 5% and it's on my board. When the intermediate term conditions change, the intermediate term outlook must change. But I have always been steadfast in what the long-term FUNDAMENTALS are. With regard to soup-lines, I've never said we'd have "soup lines". Crazies like Mike Johnston were the ones saying that. Please read my recent posts. Real-Estate is historically not a big part of the economy, thus it's direct impact in this cycle has been relatively large and it has showed up in the various figures thus painting a picture of a "mild recession". The elephant in the room is business capital spending. This typically lags real estate by 18 months and it began to turn last quarter. And we are now in a vicious recession which will get progressively worse for the next 12-18 months. I hope not to defend myself about my early bearishness on housing again. You're attempting to redirect the conversation by personally discrediting me rather than focusing on the facts. It's a typical response to somebody who cannot back up what he is saying. I won't bother going through your past and circling out all the things you've been wrong on - and there's a lot as we both know.