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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (26883)	5/13/2008 4:34:12 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 52153

BCE Stuff: Jon, I left out the Bondholders' appeal of their court loss in Quebec. Given that they lost the case; and that bondholders have never won one anywhere in Canada, I've given their appeal a zero probability. That is probably ever so slightly too pessimistic. The major buyer of the shares sold by the risk arbs has been the Caisse - a significant Quebec based financial institution, although not one of Canada's chartered banks. One scenario that I hadn't previously imagined is that they provide any shortfall in loan financing getting an immediate return of their loan when their BCE position is taken out at $42.75. Sort of sweetens any interest they get paid on the loan. In short, I'm becoming increasingly certain that the Arbs will get their heads handed to them. FWIW, Ian