Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (485)	5/14/2008 11:09:04 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 3209

BTW, I recognize that this is not a good way to trade. The right thing to do is trail it with a tight stop when you are getting nervous and have reason to believe the market will turn. I'll admit that my gut had a lot to do with this. Right now, I see no reason why this can not be a big up day. Still, my gut tells me it is dessert. If the Nasdaq composite goes from this 2519 up another 20 or 30 points, I won't care. More up than that, and I'll feel bad and re-live the same sort of trading error we all make too often.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (485)	5/14/2008 1:47:46 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Congrats on a successful trade. Now, it will be time to focus on the new challenges - namely, the direction for the next several weeks to months. $VIX crashed from 35.60 at the March low down to 16.75 today. The October 2007 VIX low - more or less corresponding to the ATH in SPX - was a shade above 16. Imho, the full test of the Oct VIX lows - while SPX is near the 50% retracement of the decline - may be a sign of complacency.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (485)	5/14/2008 3:49:43 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 3209

wow: nice trade. so no interest in those breakouts you have been posting for our illumination?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (485)	5/15/2008 11:28:23 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

So far, so good. Getting out yesterday morning is looking OK in this very early going since the possible turn. If I am right, we are just pausing here in tech and should be lower into next week. If we take out yesterday's high, I am just wrong. Big moves start with little ones. Although I am interested in the weekly/monthly timeframes, I am watching the 60min wiggles to check that this tiny move developing out of yesterday's high could be impulsive looking. So far, no technical damage on any important chart, so, from the TA side, there is nothing bearish at all yet -- except for some wedgey setups that might turn out to be real.