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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (94233)	5/14/2008 2:57:16 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

It goes way beyond that for me at this point........ We really can't rule out a deflation until housing prices start recovering on the back side of cleaning up the inventory/foreclosure mess and long term rates go up a lot. I for one acknowledge there is more to the story but certainly the deflation story isn't strong at this point after being highly possible 4-5 years ago. If it was really happening then gold and oil would be at prices from earlier this decade, food prices and equivalent rents would be falling, airline fairs would be falling, broad money supply would be decreasing ect.. I cannot just throw out housing as meaningless wood and stucco depreciating like a car in the context of the inflation argument... Probably that is my main disagreement with you and a few others on this board since IMHO if improved real estate doesn't start appreciating as an inflation hedge when inventory gets back in balance then wages are declining and costs to construct new that is made up of commodities all here are so bullish on are declining..all on a nominal basis of course.