Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: manalagi who wrote (21621)	5/15/2008 11:03:50 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 149317

Can't we send Hillary to Madagascar instead? I went to Antan once, wouldn't wish that on anybody.

To: manalagi who wrote (21621)	5/15/2008 11:05:23 AM
From: Sr K	Respond to of 149317

WSJ has one of the best analyses of Obama's campaign strategy. online.wsj.com Obama's Strategy for Low-Turnout Caucuses Helps Drive Delegate Edge By NICK TIMIRAOS May 15, 2008; Page A6 For evidence of the strategy that has made Barack Obama the likely Democratic presidential nominee, look at Nebraska, where the candidate narrowly won a little-noticed primary Tuesday. Sen. Obama's 49% to 46% victory barely got any attention from the campaigns or the press, because the state's delegates, who vote on the nomination, were chosen in a February caucus. In that contest, where turnout was less than half that of the primary, Sen. Obama won in a 68% to 32% blowout and picked up a net eight delegates -- one more than Sen. Hillary Clinton later gained from her big win in the much bigger state of Ohio. Associated Press Omaha residents wait to vote in the Nebraska primary election at a polling station in Omaha on May 13. The contrasting Nebraska votes help illustrate how Sen. Obama has done a better job than Sen. Clinton of working low-turnout caucuses for big results, even as she racked up primary wins in some of the largest states. Open Meetings Of the 19 state and territory caucuses held since Iowa's kickoff event in January, Sen. Clinton has won only three. Sen. Obama has picked up a net 145 delegates out of the caucuses, which are open meetings where voters gather to nominate delegates to state conventions, as opposed to ballot-box primaries. That's 95% of his current lead of 152 among delegates chosen by popular votes. The Democratic Party awards delegates proportionally, which means that landslide wins, even in small states, often yield more delegates than close wins in large states. Sen. Clinton won the April 22 Pennsylvania primary by 200,000 votes and picked up a net gain of 10 delegates. Sen. Obama won the Feb. 5 Idaho caucus by 13,000 votes and picked up a net 12 delegates. The Clinton campaign, frustrated by those rules, has continued to promote the view that Sen. Clinton would win more votes in a general election than Sen. Obama would, despite his lead in the delegate race. FURTHER READING • See a sortable chart s.wsj.net of primary and caucus wins state by state. The Clinton campaign says the party's nomination system places undue weight on low-turnout caucuses they consider undemocratic. Many don't use secret ballots and are held at fixed times, skewing turnout toward party activists and against working people, mothers, military personnel and others who can't spare one or two hours to attend a caucus, they say. "Obama's lead hinges on rules that are written in a way that will not produce the strongest candidate in the general election," says Sean Wilentz, a Princeton history professor and Clinton supporter. "These aren't our rules, they're the DNC rules and rather than whining about them they should have started organizing," says Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, referring to the Democratic National Committee. Two states in addition to Nebraska have held both a primary and a caucus. In Texas, where both were used to allocate delegates, Sen. Clinton won the state's primary, which drew nearly three million voters, by four percentage points. That same day she lost by 12 points the state's caucus, which drew an estimated one million voters. Sen. Clinton won a net gain of four delegates in the primary, but lost an estimated nine delegates in the caucus. [more] SideBar CLINTON STRATEGY MEMO A Jan. 19 Clinton campaign memo shows that the campaign's Super Tuesday strategy called for an aggressive district-by-district focus on primary states to wring extra delegates from four states that favored Sen. Clinton (referred to in the memo by her initials, HRC) and from nine battleground states while preventing Sen. Obama (referred to by his initials as BHO) from doing the same in nine states that favored the Illinois senator. But the campaign overestimated its primary wins in California, where it predicted winning 14 more delegates than it eventually gained, while underestimating losses in Georgia and in caucuses in Idaho and Kansas.