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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (536)	5/21/2008 11:10:28 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Continuation of general thoughts from Saturday's post (to which I am replying)... Right here, as I watch the various key charts we've been following for a couple of months, I can say that we are right at the edge of a few breakdowns that would be the first signs of at least a s-t trend change. Nothing really broken yet, save for maybe that break of the $OEX wedge we've been watching, so I am not getting ahead of myself. The tape is acting funny. It is of a different character than the last month or so. Remember the two-banded QQQQ up-channel I posted earlier today? Well, the tape is acting like it would act in that lower-energy half. The other thing that is happening here, and it is only just a hint at this point, is that Elliott counts that can point down in the wiggles (i.e., 120min) are becoming valid. It is a very interesting day for me and should be as interesting in price movement imo. As regards our canary in the coal mine, semis, they are not having a good week so far. Still, we are only half way through the week, so way to early to say if the canary died. I was very nervous late last week. Still, we only had two days close above my out at Nasdaq 2519, but it felt there for a while like it would leave me behind, an over-eager spectator. Hell, it may yet, but right now, if we have a little more down into early next week, I would be looking to go to the short side. Again, I emphasize that no damage done yet imho, so I am NOT looking to get short just now. Back to thse wiggles for a second -- most often when the market is staring at the abyss, at an inflection point, it turns away. Odds favour we spend the next few hours climbing up, away from the abyss. Nasdaq is at 2483, so let's see if it does that.