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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (7403)	5/17/2008 8:54:53 PM
From: saveslivesbyday	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

Vi It's an interesting analysis. But doesn't it assume everyone is on the same side of the trade? Volatility correlates well with an inverse of the major indices. There must be hedge funds that don't see volatility alone as risk premium, that don't know the quant formula. It almost seems too simple, so simple a caveman could figure it out. Gotta go fill out my Geico application.

To: Real Man who wrote (7403)	5/17/2008 8:59:15 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

<<<so volatility immediately declined. as measured by the vix, about 15 or 16 months ago, the vix was a hair under 10 once or twice...do you think it could conceivably get that low again this year ? i somehow don't see it, but your take... ?

To: Real Man who wrote (7403)	5/17/2008 9:13:04 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

Systemic risk doesn't have to increase to be a problem. Hell, cut the nominal value of outstanding CDS obligations in half and systemic risk would still be red-hot. When? Who knows. Agree that increased liquidity drives SP higher because volatility is cut. But the increased liquidity assumption needs to be examined. Unfortunately, I'm beginning to see indications that the monetary base is not increasing. If true, then we could very well be in the midst of a devaluation not driven by increased liquidity. Such a devaluation could be very bullish for stocks. I like the devaluation without too much increased liquidity view myself because it fits in with the facts: research.stlouisfed.org[1][id]=BASE&s[1]=pch I mean, the Fed took in a bunch of previously existing crap which was illiquid and exchanged it for highly liquid stuff. But somehow, in some way, the monetary base is not getting hugely inflated. And that needs explaining. Either way, SP goes higher. Oh, yes, the piper will be paid and that is why appx. 15% of my net worth is in gold. but I am also buying QQQQ for the short term. And Canadian oil in its various forms.