To: worksinjammies who wrote (21935 ) 5/18/2008 5:50:14 PM From: Wharf Rat Respond to of 149317 "I would like a good explanation as to where the bottleneck is" Physics...it just doesn't flow as fast when you get to around half depleted. Geology...we found the big fields and developed them already. What the peakers call "the low hanging fruit". Nature...takes time and massive phytoplankton blooms to make oil. And, when you get demand >/= supply, you get above the ground factors causing problems, cuz anything taking production offline produces a pinch; Katrina, storms in the North Sea and the GOM, war and insurrection, refinery breakdowns (altho that isn't a factor in the US, since we are currently only running at 85% capacity.) SA lies a lot. "I would like a good explanation as to where the bottleneck is. I don't think that China of India alone can be to blame, as it appears that the supply has not been disrupted" Mostly, China can be "blamed".marketwatch.com == According to statistics released Tuesday by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA), China's apparent consumption of oil products composed of gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose by 16.5 percent year on year to 52.73 million tonnes in the first three months, and crude oil, rose by eight percent to 91.8 million tonnes. en.ce.cn Also increased diesel imports by 45%, so it is now $4.79 here. China has been importing loads of diesel since late last year, partly due to coal shortages, with imports at 132,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November to March, quadruple from 28,000 bpd a year ago. in.reuters.com But, there is also "Peak exports", the export land model. As oil profits poor in to the producers, they are becoming wealthy and increasing their own use, thereby cutting down on the amount available for export. All exports should end by about 2030.en.wikipedia.org