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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (34939)5/20/2008 8:45:59 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 217669
 
"financial bubble" of the last 25 years could be drawing to an end and the post World War II "super-boom" era could also be over.

UK is in a fragile position

"more severe and longer" US slowdown than most people expect.

UK was worse-placed than America to weather the coming economic storm, because it had such a large financial sector and has had the biggest increase in house prices.

Soros warns global boom is over
By Steve Schifferes
BBC News economics reporter

George Soros on why he believes the UK is in a fragile position
Billionaire investor George Soros has given his gloomiest assessment of the state of the US and world economies.

He told BBC business editor Robert Peston that the "acute phase" of the credit crunch may be over but effects on the real economy are yet to be felt.

He warned the "financial bubble" of the last 25 years could be drawing to an end and the post World War II "super-boom" era could also be over.

He predicted a "more severe and longer" US slowdown than most people expect.

And he said that the UK was worse-placed than America to weather the coming economic storm, because it had such a large financial sector and has had the biggest increase in house prices.

Gloomy bankers

Mr Soros said that the current mandate of most of the world's leading central banks - where their main focus was fighting inflation - meant there was limited scope for cutting interest rates to help economies recover.

As for the Bank of the England, he said, "it was like a Greek tragedy", because they "couldn't do a U-turn" until there was a full-blown recession, which would finally take away the price pressures.


The Bank of England is warning of higher inflation and slower growth

It was "inevitable" that they would keep rates too high for the good of the economy, he added.

In part, Mr Soros is echoing the gloomy forecast of the world's central bankers in recent weeks.

The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, recently told the BBC that the "market correction was still on-going".

Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, warned in the Bank's inflation report that UK inflation would rise above its target while the economy would slow sharply.

Moral hazard

Mr Soros believes that central bankers are partly to blame for the credit crunch because of their past behaviour in bailing out the financial sector whenever it got into trouble for over-lending, the so-called moral hazard problem.


In the US Bear Stearns has had to be rescued

He said that the central banks should explicitly target asset bubbles such as housing booms and try to stop them getting out of control, which is something they have resisted doing so far.

And he said that tougher but smarter regulation would be needed in the future in order to reduce the excess supply of credit in the economy.

These could include measures to force banks to put aside more reserves in good times to help cushion them in bad times.

Misguided markets

Mr Soros believes that oil and other commodities are over-priced, but he sees little chance of the price of oil coming down until there is a big slowdown in the richer economies.


Oil prices have risen relentlessly this year

He sees the price of oil as being driven by higher demand in developing countries such as China, where subsidised energy costs mean there is less price-sensitivity.

He also said that stock markets are still underestimating the severity and length of the economic downturn, especially in the US, and are now having a "bear market rally".

Profiting from the crisis

Mr Soros has credibility partly because he is prepared to invest his own money to back up his convictions.

The private investment fund he has resumed managing made a return of 34% last year betting that the credit crunch was more severe than many people expected.

Mr Soros was the man reported to have made $1bn in September 1992, betting correctly that the British currency would have to be devalued and leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Mr Soros has devoted much of time since then to philanthropy, especially in Eastern Europe.




To: TobagoJack who wrote (34939)5/20/2008 9:26:38 AM
From: Rolla Coasta  Respond to of 217669
 
Scoot back to your Stanley seaview mansion as soon as possible. That's where all your precious treasuries are located. I can feel the downturn of the RE starts to unwind into a deeper hole. Can't argue the fact that any city backed up by only financial and RE will eventually get hit more harder than anywhere in a monetary earthquake. 9.0 in magnitude ... guaranteed



To: TobagoJack who wrote (34939)5/20/2008 2:22:23 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217669
 
Senate Strikes Housing Rescue Deal
Plan Would Insure Up to
$300 Billion in Home Loans;
Encouraging Note From Bush

WASHINGTON -- A Senate agreement pushed Congress significantly closer toward a bill that would expand the federal government's role in propping up the housing market.

After weeks of negotiations, Sen. Chris Dodd, a Democrat, and Republican Sen. Richard Shelby completed a plan Monday that would allow the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced loans for struggling homeowners. In a nod to a longstanding Republican concern, the agreement would also overhaul supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the enterprises that provide the lion's share of funding for U.S. mortgages.


While several hurdles remain, the bipartisan agreement, combined with positive signals from the White House, represents the clearest sign yet that Washington is ready for major legislation on housing. Some are comparing the bill to the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, enacted in response to Enron's collapse and other corporate scandals.

"We've taken the word 'partisan' out of this," said Sen. Dodd of Connecticut, who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Added Sen. Shelby: "I believe we will get overwhelming support, and I believe the president will sign it." The Senate panel is slated to vote on the plan Tuesday morning.

The House of Representatives passed a similar bill earlier this month, but the White House threatened to block it. Some conservatives fear that taxpayers could be on the hook for billions of dollars if homeowners who receive a government guarantee on their loans later default.

Senate lawmakers addressed this objection in a provision crafted in part by Sen. Jack Reed (D., R.I.). The provision calls for initial losses on defaulted loans to be covered by fees charged to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

President Bush appeared to offer partial support for the Senate's efforts. Referring to the moves to bolster supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, he said, "Congress is making progress." This was a shift from previous White House veto threats.

Mr. Bush said in brief comments at the Oval Office: "We look forward to working with Congress to get a good piece of legislation to my desk that helps our fellow citizens, and helps us get through this housing issue."


Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and a prominent voice on housing, also suggested that the Senate deal, following the House vote, could ease passage for a final bill. "The two bills are very close. They are clearly not identical," said Rep. Frank, a Democrat. "We will have conversations about it."

The deal comes as members of both parties face pressure to act on housing-market problems plaguing the broader economy. Democrats want to go into the November elections with evidence of a major legislative victory, and some Republicans, especially in areas hard-hit by the housing downturn, have shown flexibility in backing big government intervention. In the House bill, 39 Republicans voted with Democrats in support.

The bipartisan deal is a significant change from the messy political fight two years ago, when Republicans, the White House and the Federal Reserve demanded strict limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following major accounting scandals at both firms. In 2006, Senate Democrats, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac successfully fended off legislation that would limit the types of assets the companies could hold in their portfolios. Later that year, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson began negotiating directly with Rep. Frank in an effort to broker a compromise.

Congress's efforts could still fall apart. One possible area of controversy: The Fannie and Freddie fees that the Senate plan would direct into the new program were originally conceived by House Democrats as a funding source for affordable-housing programs. Liberal groups have already said they will fight the plan. Sen. Dodd said the money would be diverted from affordable-housing projects only for the first year or so.

Another politically sensitive point is whether borrowers deserve the help they would receive under the Senate plan. The program would cover borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth. For these borrowers to qualify for a new government-insured loan, their lenders would have to cut the size of the outstanding principal to a level that gives the borrower equity in the property. The concept has the implicit backing of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said such a move could help stabilize the housing market.

The new loans would be guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration. Some critics say borrowers who got in over their heads shouldn't get any government help. Supporters of the idea say the government has an interest in keeping communities intact.

"We look forward to seeing the details of the bill...especially provisions to expand programs of the Federal Housing Administration," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.


One practical issue: Lenders thus far appear reluctant to voluntarily write down the value of loans, even though this may be a cheaper option than foreclosure. Nonetheless, congressional staffers said the expanded FHA program is expected to help between 500,000 and one million people refinance into more affordable loans.

Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Leesburg, Va., says he doubts the package will "put a floor" under the market, as Sen. Dodd predicted. Writing down the principal owed by distressed borrowers will be only the "last resort" of lenders, which are more inclined to reduce interest payments or give borrowers more time to repay their loans, Mr. Lawler said.

Moreover, Congress may be finally acting at a point when the worst appears to have passed. For instance, Mr. Lawler said, home sales have begun to rebound in areas where lenders have slashed prices on foreclosed properties. "The housing market is putting a floor under itself," he said.

Tempted to Fall Behind

Ivy Zelman, an independent housing analyst based in Cleveland, said, "It's going to be helpful, but it's basically not going to stop the bleeding in 2008," partly because it will take time for the new FHA program to get up and running. She also sees a risk that some borrowers who are current on their mortgages will be tempted to fall behind so they can qualify for a loan with easier terms.

Before the House passed its version of the bill earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the government-insurance program would require a $1.7 billion government subsidy. But Sen. Dodd said he expects the costs of the program to be around $500 million. By requiring Fannie and Freddie to foot those costs, Congress could avoid a taxpayer-funded mortgage-assistance program of the type opposed by the White House.

"I think this is a victory for the taxpayers as far as housing is concerned," Sen. Shelby said. Sen. Dodd said he hoped the legislation would set a "floor" under the housing market, restoring confidence. "This is what the market has been waiting for," he said.

A New Agency

The legislation agreed upon Monday would also create a new, more powerful agency to regulate Fannie and Freddie, the government-sponsored mortgage investors. Congress has struggled with that issue for years. The legislation would allow the new regulator to set higher capital requirements for Fannie and Freddie, which have long been allowed to operate with minimal levels of capital relative to their assets.

The current requirements were set by 1992 legislation and are widely considered outdated. At present, Fannie and Freddie each have "core" capital equaling less than 2% of the mortgages they own or guarantee. Fannie's core capital as of March 31 was about $43 billion, and the company has since raised about $6.5 billion more through sales of common and preferred shares, bringing the total to around $50 billion.

If Fannie were a bank, regulators would require it to hold $135 billion of capital to be considered "well-capitalized," estimated Karen Petrou, managing partner at research firm Federal Financial Analytics in Washington.

The Senate deal, if eventually enacted, isn't expected to completely appease consumer and affordable-housing groups pushing for legislation that would allow bankruptcy-court judges to alter the terms of certain mortgages in foreclosure.

"That's the only thing that will help homeowners now," said Ed Mierzwinski, federal consumer program director at the U.S. PIRG, which is the federation of state Public Interest Research Groups.

On another issue of concern to liberals, the House passed a bill last year that would create an affordable housing fund financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House version would fund roughly $1 billion each year for states and cities to produce, rehabilitate, and preserve close to 1.5 million housing units over 10 years. The White House threatened to veto that measure, and the Senate never acted on it. This could be a stumbling block.

"The affordable housing trust fund is very important to us," Rep. Frank said.

Write to Damian Paletta at damian.paletta@wsj.com and James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com