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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (79251)	5/21/2008 12:50:15 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Hi Elroy...I believe that WTIC is putting in it's top for 2008. The Falcon and I have been discussing price pivot turning points of 130 (TF) and 132 (JP's crystal ball gazing number). There are several different Elliott Wave time and price clusters that are in this area in price and we are starting to enter the turning point "window"; as well as some WD Gann and various additional technical evidence that is lining up for this presumed price high @ 130-132.63 (I've got to give a $2 leeway for a move to 134 and change in a spike move reversal.) The single most compelling data point that I can point to is that the entire Crude futures curve (or strip) has achieved something very very rarely witnessed at elevated market tops. the entire forward strip is priced above the nearby spot price of the high open interest nearby month. the Strip (or curve) is showing a price of 131.04 for Dec of 2011 and the long dated contract is way up at 138.38. As Patrick Slevin would comment this is an entire forward strip (curve) that is in contango) and is simply illogical and extreme with spot crude at 129 and change. This is one of the type market extreme sentiment shifts that occur at significant intermediate and longer term tops. This is a death knell for significant price appreciation from this point. The commercials can come in and sell their product in the forward markets at grand slam prices. the only way you can get on board this continuing to occur would be to see a currency collapse and a hyper inflationary environment. That is not going to happen now. ( i'd give it a 2.4% outlier possibility). So the energy complex is totally juiced up in price we have the commercials who can come in and lean on this market from here to doomsday at this price level and they will have their way. They are the commercials. This is an aberation. The commercials can sell endlessly into this market and they can deliver the actual product so they are not going to get caught short. (that's my analysis; and I realize it's an opinion and analysis that is going against the popular grain..... if it was not who the heck else could be long all these bloody crude contracts with a 130 dollar handle. If I am wrong and we zoom to 150- 160 you can feed me humble pie. But otherwise a few of you hedge funds and wealth management offices; ....commercial entities etc. should retain the services of someone who has been involved with the markets for more than the past single cycle. So let's see how this plays out. Hell I traded my first crude contract in 1986 and it almost had a single digit handle! John

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (79251)	5/21/2008 1:05:08 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 116555

These Govt officials from Brazil have a very neglegible commitment to capital markets. They just managed to get into to top strata of Investment grading for their Govt Debt and then they are trying to counterbalance our faith in this soverign debt upgrade with vague references of nationalizing other industries. After all the Government has completed defaulted on 3 seperate currecies in the past century....... what the hell are they doing down their in Brazil........ and now i have to take this bad news to Patrick and the others who were talking up a few Brazilian stocks. John

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (79251)	5/22/2008 5:06:15 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 116555

Exposing Elroy and getting facts straight: "nationalize" foreign owned businesses. The ministry wants to survey deposits. Know to whom the belong, and if they are not being exploited remove the licenses and give to someone who wants to produce. It is necessary to identify these deposits, to know on behalf of whom they are registered , will be necessary, to remove the licenses of that they had made the option not to use these deposits. Between two and five years, we would have a bigger volume of fertilizers, and the prices would be reduced". The minister said that the government is making a survey of the national deposits to increase the internal production of nitrogen, match and potassium, inputs used in the fertilizer production. " Then we already know that we have deposits in Brazil. We need is to adopt measured so that they are effectively explored" , the minister said. In the specific case of the phosphorus, the government already identified that new private mines could be explored, reducing the importations. The problem is that the companies who would have done that are using 1966 legislation to delay the exploration because they do not have interest in increasing the production here. With this, they allege that they are if dedicating the research. According to Stephanes, the sector is controlled by " four or five" great companies in the world. " They are the same ones that they control the distribution in Brazil and, later, acquire production".